计算机科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9): 105-109.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.190800030
庄世杰, 於志勇, 郭文忠, 黄昉菀
ZHUANG Shi-jie, YU Zhi-yong, GUO Wen-zhong, HUANG Fang-wan
摘要： 通过精确的电力负荷预测,智能电网可以提供比传统电网更高效、可靠和环保的电力服务。现实生活中,电力负荷数据往往存在着与历史数据较高的时间相关性,而传统的神经网络却很少关注它。近年来,循环神经网络(Recurrent Neural Network,RNN)由于可以很好地捕获在时间上距离很远的数据之间的相关性,因此在电力负荷预测中受到越来越多的关注。但是,由于RNN特有的自循环结构,当采用随时间的反向传播算法(Back-Propagation Through Time,BPTT)进行网络训练时,随着网络层数的增加,很容易发生梯度消失等问题,从而导致预测精度下降。目前已有多种解决梯度消失问题的RNN架构,如长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)和门控制单元(Gated Recurrent Unit,GRU),但其复杂的内部结构会增加训练时长。为了解决上述问题,文中首先对目前流行的各种RNN架构进行了研究和分析,其次结合最新提出的Zoneout技术,设计了一种跨时间尺度的分模块循环神经网络架构,重点研究了隐藏层模块的随机更新策略,不仅有效解决了梯度消失问题,而且大幅度减少了待训练的网络参数。基于基准数据集和实际负载数据集的实验结果表明,该结构可以获得比目前流行的RNN架构更好的性能。
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