Abstract
Recent years have witnessed the growing popularity of Internet telephony services (ITSs) in the telecommunications industry. However, most studies of ITSs have focused on technological trends, institutional policies, or advances in related technologies. Although there has been a sharp increase in demand for ITSs, which are increasingly likely to replace existing telephone services, few studies have provided a quantitative analysis of ITSs. This study develops some classification models for predicting consumers’ intentions to switch from traditional telephone services to ITSs by adopting data mining methods to analyze switching intentions and using discriminant analysis, logistic regression, classification tree, and neural network techniques to develop the classification models. This study compares these models to identify the superior one, and using the chosen model, the study suggests some customer relationship management strategies that can best address the transition from traditional telephone services to ITSs. The classification model has important practical implications for managers in the telecommunications industry.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
ABI Research (2010) http://www.abiresearch.com/press/3515-World+Business+VoIP+Services+Market+Set+to+Double+in+Size+by+2015, Retrieved on 02 May 2012
Ahn J, Han S, Lee Y (2006) Customer churn analysis: Churn determinants and mediation effects of partial defection in the Korean mobile telecommunications service industry. Telecommun Policy 30(10–11):552–568
Altman EI, Marco G, Varetton F (1994) Corporate distress diagnosis: comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks. J Bank Financ 18:505–520
Ansari S, Kohavi R, Mason L, Zheng Z (2000) Integrating e-commerce and data mining: architecture and challenges. In: Proceedings of WEBKDD 2000 workshop: web mining for e-commerce–challenges and opportunities, Boston, MA. http://robotics.stanford.edu/~ronnyk/WEBKDD2000/papers/index.html
Australian Communications and Media Authority (2007) The Australian VoIP market: the supply and take-up of VOIP in Australia. http://www.acma.gov.au/webwr/_assets/main/lib310210/aus_voip_market_apr_08.pdf
Bernett HG, Kuhn MD (2002) The emergence of electronic customer relationship management. Telecommun Rev 13:91–96
Berry M, Linoff G (2004) Data mining techniques for marketing, sales, and customer relationship management, 2nd edn. Wiley, Indianapolis, IN
Bhattacharyya S, Jha S, Tharakunnel K, Westland JC (2011) Data mining for credit card fraud: a comparative study. Decis Support Syst 50(3):602–613
Breiman L, Friedman J, Olshen R, Stone C (1984) Classification and regression trees. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton, FL
Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, Berlin
Buyut VC, Siadat SH, Abidin WZ (2008) Electronic customer relationship management for VoIP service. In: Proceedings of the international conference on computer and electrical engineering (ICCEE), Phuket, Thailand, pp 419–423
Chawla N, Japkowicz N, Kolcz A (2004) Editorial: special issue on learning from imbalanced data sets. ACM SIGKDD Explor Newslett 6(1):1–6
Cheng B, Titterington DM (1994) Neural networks: a review from a statistical perspective. Statist Sci 9(1):2–30
Desai CS, Convay DF, Crook JN, Overstreet GA (1997) Credit scoring models in the credit union environment using neural networks and genetic algorithms. IMA J Math Appl Bus Ind 8(4):323–346
Drummond C, Holte R (2003) C4.5, class imbalance, and cost sensitivity: why under-sampling beats over-sampling. In: Proceedings of the ICML ‘03 workshop on learning from imbalanced data sets
Ezawa K, Norton S (1995) Knowledge discovery in telecommunication services data using Bayesian network models. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, Montreal, pp 101–105
Fader P, Hardie B, Lee K (2005) RFM and CLV: using iso-value curves for customer base analysis. J Mark Res 42(4):415–430
Fan W, Stolfo S, Zhang J, Chan P (1999) AdaCost: misclassification cost-sensitive boosting. In: Proceedings of the sixteenth international conference on machine learning, Slovenia
Freund Y, Schapire R (1996) Experiments with a new boosting algorithm. In: Thirteenth international conference on machine learning, Bari, Italy
Ha SH, Yang JW, Min JH (2009) Credit prediction based on Kohonen network and survival analysis. J KORMS 24(2):35–54
Ham CY, Kwang JH, Nah SW, Chun BJ (2007) Present conditions and its implications in VoIP domestic and foreign markets. KISDI Issue Report. http://www.kisdi.re.kr/kisdi/fp/kr/board/selectSingleBoard.do?cmd=selectSingleBoard&boardId=GPK_PRESS&seq=12535&reStep=1253599&ctx=_
Helfert G, Vith K (1999) Relationship marketing teams-improving the utilization of customer relationship potentials through a high team design quality. Ind Mark Manag 28(5):553–564
Heo MH, Lee YG (2003) Data mining modeling and cases. SPSS Academy, Seoul, Korea
Infonetics Research (2011) http://www.infonetics.com/pr/2011/2H10-VoIP-and-UC-Services-Market-Highlights.asp. Retrieved on 02 Jun 2012
Jang BJ, Nah SH, Lee EG (2006) A study on product differentiation strategies in VoIP market. Korea Information Society Development Institute Issue Report. http://220.72.21.30/pub/docu/kr/AG/AB/AGAB2006AAD/AGAB-2006-AAD.PDF
Jung CY (2001) Statistical analysis using SPSSWIN, 4th edn. Trade Publishing Co., Seoul, Korea
Jung R (2004) Korea IP telephony service forecast and analysis 2004–2008. 2003 year end review, http://research.inews24.com/research/research_view.php?g_menu=410200&seq_no=173
Kabiraj S (2003) Electronic customer relationship management: origin and opportunities. In: Proceedings of the international engineering management conference (IEMC), New York, pp 484–488
Kang TG, Kim DY, Kim YS (2004) The trend of Internet telephony (VoIP) technology for BcN. ETRI IT Trends Rep 19(6):66–73
Kim DW (2009) Game theory analysis on effects of the quality guarantee policy and the number portability policy of VoIP. J Korean Acad Soc Bus Adm 38(1):35–49
Kim H, Yoon C (2004) Determinants of subscriber churn and customer loyalty in the Korean mobile telephony market. Telecommun Policy 28(9–10):751–765
Kim MK, Kweon SC, Park JH (2008) KSF and adoption characteristics of mobile broadband for activating mobile 2.0. ETRI IT Trends Rep 23(6):112–123
KISDI (2009) Evaluation report of competitive telecommunication market in first half of 2009 (consumer). http://www.roagroup.co.kr/korea/service/report_detail.cfm?category=3&report_ID=375
Kohli R, Piontek F, Ellington T, VanOsdon T, Shepard M, Brazel G (2001) Managing customer relationships through e-business decision support application: a case of hospital–physician collaboration. Decis Support Syst 32(2):171–197
Kwon OS, Ahn JH (2002) Internet telephone-market, rate, and regulation. Telecommun Policy Issue 14(1):1–107
Leddy C (2005) Cable’s 15 most critical VoIP questions. CableWorld, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0DIZ/is_2005_June_6/ai_n13823646/?tag=content;col1
Lee BY, Cho KH, Song SI, Yoo JS (2006) Design of a forecasting model for customer classification in the telecommunication industries. J Korean Contents 6(1):180–190
Lee HJ, Kim YK, Yu JG (2000) A study on methodology for predicting demand of telecommunication services. Korea Information Society Development Institute Issue Report. http://academic.naver.com/view.nhn?doc_id=38288373
Lee JY (2009) Status report about international mobile VoIP services. KISDI 21(9):56–64
Lee KN, Lee HC (2003) A study on the combined decision tree (C4.5) and neural network algorithm for classification of mobile telecommunication customer. J Intell Inf Syst 9(1):139–155
Lee S, Siau K (2001) A review of data mining techniques. Ind Manag Data Syst 101(1):41–46
Lee TS, Chiu CC, Lu CC, Chen IF (2002) Credit scoring using the hybrid neural discriminant technique. Expert Syst Appl 23(3):245–254
Lin A (2006) Skype Goes for Broke, Bloomberg Businessweek. http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2006-05-15/skype-goes-for-broke
Lingfen S, Ifeachor EC (2006) Voice quality prediction models and their application in VoIP networks. IEEE Trans Multimedia 8(4):809–820
Massey AP, Montoya-Weiss MM, Holcom K (2001) Re-engineering the customer relationship: leveraging knowledge assets at IBM. Decis Support Syst 32(2):155–170
Neslin S, Gupta S, Kamakura W, Lu J, Mason C (2006) Defection detection: measuring and understanding the predictive accuracy of customer churn models. J Mark Res 43(2):204–211
Ngai EWT (2005) Customer relationship management research (1992–2002): an academic literature review and classification. Market Intell Plan 23(6):582–605
Ngai ETW, Xiu L, Chau DCK (2009) Application of data mining techniques in customer relationship management: a literature review and classification. Expert Syst Appl 36(2):2592–2602
Ovum (2007) Australia fixed voice forecast 2006–2011, August 2007
Park DW, Yoon SH (2006) A study about wiretapping attack and security of VoIP service. Korean Soc Comput Inf 11(4):155–164
Park JH, Park HJ, Paik JH (2008) Using characteristics and adoption determinants of fixed VoIP in Korea. ETRI IT Trends Report 23(3):163–174
Payne A, Frow P (2006) Customer relationship management: from strategy to implementation. J Market Manag 22(1–2):135–168
Peppers D, Rogers M, Dorf B (1999) The one to one fieldbook. Doubleday, Garden City
Rinde J (1999) Telephony in the year 2005. Comput Netw 31(3):157–168
Shmueli G, Patel RN, Bruce CP (2010) Data mining for business intelligence: concepts, techniques, and applications in Microsoft office excel with XL Miner, 2nd edn. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ
Song KH (2007) A study on the introduction and prospect of ENUM to improve the quality of VoIP interconnection—based on the results of ENUM pilot project. Inf Commun Mag 24(1):55–64
Tabachnick BG, Fidell LS (2006) Using multivariate statistics, 5th edn. Pearson, Upper Saddle River, NJ
Tseng FM (2005) Forecasting the Taiwan customer market for Internet telephony. J Chin Inst Ind Eng 22(2):93–105
Tseng FM, Yu CY (2005) Partitioned fuzzy integral multinomial logit model for Taiwan’s internet telephony market. Omega 33(3):267–276
Turban E, Sharda R, Delen D (2010) Decision support and business intelligence systems, 9th edn. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
World IT Report (2003) Demand for VOIP services across Asia-Pacific to boom. http://www.worlditreport.com/News/93602-Demand_for_VOIP_services_across_Asia-Pacific_to_boom.htm
Zhang G, Hillenbrand M, Muller P (2005) Facilitating the interoperability among different VoIP protocols with VoIP web services. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on distributed frameworks for multimedia applications, Besan, France, pp 39–44
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by Kyungpook National University AS Research Fund, 2011.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ha, S.H., Yang, J. Classification of switching intentions toward internet telephony services: a quantitative analysis. Inf Technol Manag 14, 91–104 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10799-012-0151-8
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10799-012-0151-8