Abstract
With the increasing adoption of electric devices and renewable energy generation, electric load forecasting, especially short-term load forecasting (STLF), has recently attracted more attention. Accurate short-term load forecasting is of significant importance for the safe and efficient operation of power grids. Deep learning-based models have achieved impressive success on several applications, including short-term load forecasting. Yet, most deep learning models do require a large amount of training data. However, in the real world, it may be very difficult or even impossible to collect enough data to train a reliable machine learning model. This makes is hard to adopt deep models for several real-world scenarios. Thus, it will be very helpful if deep learning models can be learned to tackle tasks with limited amount of training data and unseen tasks. In this work, we propose to use the meta-learning framework to train a long short-term memory-based model for short-term residential load forecasting. Specifically, by minimizing the task-level loss (loss over several tasks), the model is trained to perform well on different tasks. We also use domain randomization techniques to further augment the training tasks, which may further improve the generalization ability of the proposed model. Our model is evaluated on real-world data sets and compared against some classic forecasting models.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
- 1.
Figure is from [42].
References
Hahn, H., Meyer-Nieberg, S., Pickl, S.: Electric load forecasting methods: tools for decision making. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 199(3), 902–907 (2009)
Wu, D.: Machine Learning Algorithms and Applications for Sustainable Smart Grid. McGill University (Canada) (2018)
Wu, D., Zeng, H., Lu, C., Boulet, B.: Two-stage energy management for office buildings with workplace EV charging and renewable energy. IEEE Trans. Transp. Electrification 3(1), 225–237 (2017)
Bunn, D., Farmer, E.D.: Comparative models for electrical load forecasting (1985)
Hippert, H.S., Pedreira, C.E., Souza, R.C.: Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: a review and evaluation. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 16(1), 44–55 (2001)
Hall, D., Lutsey, N.: Electric vehicle charging guide for cities. Consulting Report (2020)
Wu, D., Zeng, H., Boulet, B.: Neighborhood level network aware electric vehicle charging management with mixed control strategy. In: 2014 IEEE International Electric Vehicle Conference (IEVC), pp. 1–7. IEEE (2014)
Wu, D., Rabusseau, G., François-lavet, V., Precup, D., Boulet, B.: Optimizing home energy management and electric vehicle charging with reinforcement learning. In: Proceedings of the 16th Adaptive Learning Agents (2018)
Dang, Q., Wu, D., Boulet, B.: EV charging management with ANN-based electricity price forecasting. In: 2020 IEEE Transportation Electrification Conference and Expo (ITEC), pp. 626–630. IEEE (2020)
Dang, Q., Wu, D., Boulet, B.: An advanced framework for electric vehicles interaction with distribution grids based on q-learning. In: 2019 IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE), pp. 3491–3495. IEEE (2019)
Dang, Q., Wu, D., Boulet, B.: A q-learning based charging scheduling scheme for electric vehicles. In: 2019 IEEE Transportation Electrification Conference and Expo (ITEC), pp. 1–5. IEEE (2019)
Dang, Q., Wu, D., Boulet, B.: EV fleet batteries as distributed energy resources considering dynamic electricity pricing. In: 2021 IEEE 12th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG), pp. 1–6. IEEE (2021)
Adebayo, T.S., et al.: Modeling the dynamic linkage between renewable energy consumption, globalization, and environmental degradation in South Korea: does technological innovation matter? Energies 14(14), 4265 (2021)
Contreras, J., Espinola, R., Nogales, F.J., Conejo, A.J.: Arima models to predict next-day electricity prices. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 18(3), 1014–1020 (2003)
He, H., Liu, T., Chen, R., Xiao, Y., Yang, J.: High frequency short-term demand forecasting model for distribution power grid based on ARIMA. In: IEEE CSAE, vol. 3, (Zhangjiaji, China), pp. 293–297 (2012)
Matsila, H., Bokoro, P.: Load forecasting using statistical time series model in a medium voltage distribution network. In: IEEE IECON, (Washington, DC), pp. 4974–4979 (2018)
Wu, D., Wang, B., Precup, D., Boulet, B.: Multiple kernel learning-based transfer regression for electric load forecasting. IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 11(2), 1183–1192 (2019)
Ye, J., Yang, L.: A comparative study of ensemble support vector regression methods for short-term load forecasting. In: IEEE ICSAI, (Nanjing, China), pp. 139–143 (2018)
Chen, Y., et al.: Short-term electrical load forecasting using the support vector regression (SVR) model to calculate the demand response baseline for office buildings. Appl. Energy 195, 659–670 (2017)
Dong, Y., Zhang, Z., Hong, W.-C.: A hybrid seasonal mechanism with a chaotic cuckoo search algorithm with a support vector regression model for electric load forecasting. Energies 11(4), 1009 (2018)
Wu, D., Wang, B., Precup, D., Boulet, B.: Boosting based multiple kernel learning and transfer regression for electricity load forecasting. In: Altun, Y., et al. (eds.) ECML PKDD 2017. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 10536, pp. 39–51. Springer, Cham (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71273-4_4
Lin, W., Wu, D., Boulet, B.: Spatial-temporal residential short-term load forecasting via graph neural networks. IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 12(6), 5373–5384 (2021)
Kong, W., Dong, Z.Y., Jia, Y., Hill, D.J., Xu, Y., Zhang, Y.: Short-term residential load forecasting based on LSTM recurrent neural network. IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 10(1), 841–851 (2019)
Kim, N., Kim, M., Choi, J.K.: LSTM based short-term electricity consumption forecast with daily load profile sequences. In: IEEE GCCE, Las Vegas, pp. 136–137 (2018)
Moon, J., Kim, Y., Son, M., Hwang, E.: Hybrid short-term load forecasting scheme using random forest and multilayer perceptron. Energies 11(12), 3283 (2018)
Son, M., Moon, J., Jung, S., Hwang, E.: A short-term load forecasting scheme based on auto-encoder and random forest. In: Ntalianis, K., Vachtsevanos, G., Borne, P., Croitoru, A. (eds.) APSAC 2018. LNEE, vol. 574, pp. 138–144. Springer, Cham (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21507-1_21
Hoens, T.R., Polikar, R., Chawla, N.V.: Learning from streaming data with concept drift and imbalance: an overview. Progress Artif. Intell. 1(1), 89–101 (2012)
Finn, C., Abbeel, P., Levine, S.: Model-agnostic meta-learning for fast adaptation of deep networks. In: International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1126–1135. PMLR (2017)
Rusu, A.A., et al.: Meta-learning with latent embedding optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1807.05960 (2018)
Zintgraf, L., Shiarli, K., Kurin, V., Hofmann, K., Whiteson, S.: Fast context adaptation via meta-learning. In: International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 7693–7702. PMLR (2019)
Olier, I., et al.: Meta-QSAR: a large-scale application of meta-learning to drug design and discovery. Mach. Learn. 107(1), 285–311 (2018)
Mireshghallah, F., Shrivastava, V., Shokouhi, M., Berg-Kirkpatrick, T., Sim, R., Dimitriadis, D.: UserIdentifier: implicit user representations for simple and effective personalized sentiment analysis. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.00135 (2021)
Hospedales, T., Antoniou, A., Micaelli, P., Storkey, A.: Meta-learning in neural networks: a survey. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.05439 (2020)
Giraud-Carrier, C., Vilalta, R., Brazdil, P.: Introduction to the special issue on meta-learning. Mach. Learn. 54(3), 187–193 (2004)
Sung, F., Yang, Y., Zhang, L., Xiang, T., Torr, P.H., Hospedales, T.M.: Learning to compare: Relation network for few-shot learning. In: Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pp. 1199–1208 (2018)
Snell, J., Swersky, K., Zemel, R.S.: Prototypical networks for few-shot learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1703.05175 (2017)
Santoro, A., Bartunov, S., Botvinick, M., Wierstra, D., Lillicrap, T.: One-shot learning with memory-augmented neural networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1605.06065 (2016)
Santoro, A., Bartunov, S., Botvinick, M., Wierstra, D., Lillicrap, T.: Meta-learning with memory-augmented neural networks. In: International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1842–1850. PMLR (2016)
He, K., Zhang, X., Ren, S., Sun, J.: Deep residual learning for image recognition. In: Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pp. 770–778 (2016)
Lillicrap, T.P., et al.: Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.02971 (2015)
Bengio, Y., Simard, P., Frasconi, P., et al.: Learning long-term dependencies with gradient descent is difficult. IEEE Trans. Neural Networks 5(2), 157–166 (1994)
Rassem, A., El-Beltagy, M., Saleh, M.: Cross-country skiing gears classification using deep learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1706.08924 (2017)
Zang, X., Yao, H., Zheng, G., Xu, N., Xu, K., Li, Z.: MetaLight: value-based meta-reinforcement learning for traffic signal control. In: Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, vol. 34, pp. 1153–1160 (2020)
Khodadadeh, S., Bölöni, L., Shah, M.: Unsupervised meta-learning for few-shot image classification. arXiv preprint arXiv:1811.11819 (2018)
Yin, W.: Meta-learning for few-shot natural language processing: a survey. arXiv preprint arXiv:2007.09604 (2020)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing
About this paper
Cite this paper
Wu, D., Cui, C., Boulet, B. (2022). Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting via Meta Learning and Domain Augmentation. In: Mercier-Laurent, E., Kayakutlu, G. (eds) Artificial Intelligence for Knowledge Management, Energy, and Sustainability. AI4KMES 2021. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol 637. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96592-1_14
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96592-1_14
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-96591-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-96592-1
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)