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Multi-scale Simulation Modeling for Prevention and Public Health Management of Diabetes in Pregnancy and Sequelae

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Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling (SBP-BRiMS 2019)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNISA,volume 11549))

Abstract

Diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) is an increasing public health priority in the Australian Capital Territory, particularly due to its impact on risk for developing Type 2 diabetes. While earlier diagnostic screening results in greater capacity for early detection and treatment, such benefits must be balanced with the greater demands this imposes on public health services. To address such planning challenges, a multi-scale hybrid simulation model of DIP was built to explore the interaction of risk factors and capture the dynamics underlying the development of DIP. The impact of interventions on health outcomes at the physiological, health service and population level is measured. Of particular central significance in the model is a compartmental model representing the underlying physiological regulation of glycemic status based on beta-cell dynamics and insulin resistance. The model also simulated the dynamics of continuous BMI evolution, glycemic status change during pregnancy and diabetes classification driven by the individual-level physiological model. We further modeled public health service pathways providing diagnosis and care for DIP to explore the optimization of resource use during service delivery. The model was extensively calibrated against empirical data.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

    Yang Qin, Weicheng Qian, Anahita Safarishahrbijari & Nathaniel D. Osgood

  2. ACT Health, Canberra, Australia

    Louise Freebairn

  3. The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre, Sydney, Australia

    Louise Freebairn

  4. University of Notre Dame, Sydney, Australia

    Louise Freebairn

  5. Decision Analytics, The Sax Institute, Ultimo, Australia

    Jo-An Atkinson

  6. Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

    Jo-An Atkinson

  7. Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia

    Jo-An Atkinson

Authors
  1. Yang Qin
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  2. Louise Freebairn
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  3. Jo-An Atkinson
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  4. Weicheng Qian
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  5. Anahita Safarishahrbijari
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  6. Nathaniel D. Osgood
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yang Qin .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. United States Military Academy, West Point, NY, USA

    Robert Thomson

  2. University of Michigan–Flint, Flint, MI, USA

    Halil Bisgin

  3. Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA, USA

    Christopher Dancy

  4. The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    Ayaz Hyder

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Qin, Y., Freebairn, L., Atkinson, JA., Qian, W., Safarishahrbijari, A., Osgood, N.D. (2019). Multi-scale Simulation Modeling for Prevention and Public Health Management of Diabetes in Pregnancy and Sequelae. In: Thomson, R., Bisgin, H., Dancy, C., Hyder, A. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11549. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21741-9_26

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21741-9_26

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-21740-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-21741-9

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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