The re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States is unlikely to mean a dramatic change of course for American policy towards the Palestinian people. His campaign was largely funded by Israel’s richest billionaire, Miriam Adelson. However, there are some key differences to note in anticipation of the shift from a Democratic to a Republican administration in January.
Early indicators show that US support for Israel’s wars of aggression in Lebanon and Gaza did not significantly influence the majority of voters. It holds that foreign policy is generally a low priority for most Americans according to polling data, but it was the primary issue for some.
For instance, in Dearborn, Michigan, the large Arab and Muslim-American population was almost entirely dissatisfied with the administration of President Joe Biden. Their outrage towards the administration’s support of Israel even reached the point that they became convinced to vote for Donald Trump.
While most of those voting on the handling of the wars on Gaza and Lebanon decided to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, it is notable that Stein massively underperformed on a national level. In addition, many of those Arab and Muslim voters who decided to cast their ballots for Donald Trump expressed that they were doing so purely to punish the Democratic Party for supporting what they saw as genocide. However, some also adhered to the calls from Palestinian political parties, like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), and chose not to vote at all. Out of all the presidential candidates, Stein’s campaign most prominently ran on the platform of ending the genocide in Gaza. But given the low turnout for her and the Green Party, it appears the issue of Gaza did not significantly influence the majority of American voters.
Donald Trump’s Loyalty Has Already Been Purchased
Some have argued that Donald Trump would be better on the issue of Gaza, viewing him as a potential “wildcard” who has publicly stated that he intends to end the war. However, a simple look at his record, his incoming administration, and his financial backers undermines this argument.
Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign received its largest financial contribution from a woman named Miriam Adelson, often called Israel’s richest billionaire. She donated a whopping $100 million to the Republican candidate and did so expecting that Donald Trump would permit Israel to annex the illegally occupied West Bank.
Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, first began publicly proclaiming his intentions regarding West Bank annexation in 2017 under Donald Trump’s first term in office. In fact, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, donated to illegal Israeli settlements like Beit El and funded racist yeshivas inside the West Bank settlement of Yitzhar.
Israel is likely to annex around 60% of the illegally occupied West Bank, encompassing what is known as Area C. If Trump allows his Israeli allies to proceed with this, it would precipitate a large military operation and ethnic cleansing campaigns.
When it comes to the Israeli war on Gaza and against Lebanon, it seems unlikely that much will change, barring a potential decision by Trump to put US boots on the ground. However, questions remain regarding how the Republican president will seek to deal with Iran. While a direct war appears unlikely, there are a number of potentially aggressive moves the US can make regionally.
Also, due to Donald Trump’s strong relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), he may seek to bring both of these regimes closer to Israel while expanding US military pressure on Yemen’s government, Ansarallah.
However, when we examine the current Middle East policy goals pursued by the Biden administration, they are almost identical to those that Trump initiated during his first term. In fact, one could say that Joe Biden simply continued where Trump left off in many ways.
Instead of taking a strong stance against Saudi Arabia, as the Biden administration had promised on the campaign trail in 2020, the Democratic administration made Riyadh the key pillar in its overall Middle East strategy.
Joe Biden made a Saudi-Israel normalization deal his number one regional priority. Doing so was an essential step toward the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which the US proudly announced on September 9, 2023. The corridor is a bid to counter and compete with China’s growing influence via the Belt and Road Initiative.
This strategy of a normalization alliance was outlined by Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu in his September 2023 address to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). It picked up momentum during Trump’s first term in office with the controversial “Abraham Accords,” which normalized relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain. The Israeli premier’s hope for a “new Middle East” and the idea of bringing pro-US Arab nations together with Israel to form a “Middle East NATO” had already been planned while Donald Trump was in office.
On October 7, the Trump-Biden strategy of sidelining the Palestinian people, while also allowing Israel to escalate its aggression against them, backfired significantly and halted the prospects of implementing the “new Middle East.” However, it is clear that Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to continue with his “dream,” as he called it during his 2024 UNGA address. Donald Trump, who is expected to fill his administration with neoconservatives akin to Mike Pompeo once again , will most likely be on board with Netanyahu’s vision for the region. Therefore, it is unlikely that we will see his government apply pressure on their Israeli allies to stop their mass slaughter of innocent civilians.
The United States Policy Toward Israel: “Unconditional Support”
The US policy toward Israel is one of unconditional support. It does not matter whether Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris had won—both have openly declared this. Where the Republican and Democratic Parties do differ, however, is on their proposed “solution” to the Palestine-Israeli conflict, which is of considerable importance.
While Joe Biden’s administration made it clear that it viewed a so-called “two-state solution” as the only viable option for lasting peace, the Republican Party has a different view under Donald Trump. In 2020, Trump produced what was called the “Deal of the Century,” essentially a plan that allowed for Israel to annex even more Palestinian land while reducing Palestine to a subjugated series of Bantustans.
Abandoning the idea of a two-state solution is a major step for any US government—not because there was ever any real hope for such a settlement, but because this would technically put Israel in a position where it faced one of two options. Israel will either eventually fall to a Palestinian majority within the country or it will have to intensify mass ethnic cleansing and genocide.
Evidently, Israel is today pursuing the latter in the Gaza Strip, while planning to do the same in the West Bank. This is why the position of the Trump administration is so significant here—it is a de facto acceptance of Israel’s intentions. While the Biden White House uses the language of “peace” and “two-states,” in practice, they are allowing Israel to get away with exactly this. In the case of Donald Trump, he doesn’t even bother to pretend.
