Including water, energy and land climate impacts and adaptation strategies in IAM scenarios

Vinca, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3051-178X, Awais, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6853-758X, Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Byers, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742, Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Satoh, Y., & Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515 (2022). Including water, energy and land climate impacts and adaptation strategies in IAM scenarios. In: IAMC 2022, December 2022.

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Abstract

Although several studies focus on geophysical climate impacts (CI) on the water, energy, and land (WEL) sectors (e.g., precipitation, crop yields, cooling degree days), most IAMs still do not include these impacts and therefore underestimate the CI consequences. Here, we include biophysical climate impacts and adaptation strategies for the WEL sectors in an IAM. We develop and compare updated global mitigation scenarios to achieve the 1.5C by 2100 to adaptation scenarios. We show that adding geophysical sector-explicit climate impacts not only affects the investment balance between scenarios but, most importantly, provides new insights into sectoral transitions and regional distribution of mitigation and adaptation costs.

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