というNBER論文が上がっている（ungated版［H/T Mostly Economics］）。原題は「Has China’s Growth Gone From Miracle to Malady?」で、著者はEswar S. Prasad（コーネル大）。
以下はその要旨。
China’s remarkable run of persistently high growth in recent decades is all the more stunning in light of the country’s low levels of financial and institutional development, state-dominated economy, and nondemocratic government. Notwithstanding the inefficient and risky growth model, the government has maneuvered the economy around various stresses without any major financial or economic crash. With a shrinking labor force and declining efficiency of investment, raising productivity growth is key to maintaining reasonable GDP growth. Unbalanced reforms, a schizophrenic approach to the role of the market versus the state, and strains in financial and property markets could result in significant volatility but a financial or economic collapse is not in the cards.
（拙訳）
ここ数十年の中国の著しい高成長の継続は、金融や制度の発達の遅れ、国家に統制された経済、および非民主的な政府に鑑みると、一層驚くべき出来事である。非効率的でリスクの高い成長モデルにもかかわらず、政府は、大きな金融もしくは経済の破綻無しに、様々なストレスを回避して経済を運営してきた。労働力の減少と投資の効率性の低下により、生産性の成長を引き上げることがそれなりのGDP成長を維持する鍵となる。均衡の取れていない改革、市場と政府の役割への矛盾したアプローチ、および金融市場と不動産市場における緊張は大幅な変動をもたらしかねないが、金融と経済の破綻が生じる可能性は低い。
ungated版の本文には
...a systemic meltdown is not in the cards. Most major Chinese banks are under state control and can provide infusions of cash to troubled corporations, even if that only pushes problems off into the future. Such stumbles are inevitable as China tries to give market forces freer rein, but the government has enough control and resources to prevent broader financial crashes.
...
Many emerging market economies have run into distress on account of high levels of external debt, particularly foreign currency debt than can cause balance sheet problems when a country’s economy and exchange rate deteriorate simultaneously. China’s overall external debt is estimated to be about 16 percent of GDP, far less than most other emerging market economies, and less than half of this is denominated in foreign currencies.
...
With foreign exchange reserves amounting to about 17 percent of GDP, flight of even 10 percent of total deposits would deplete reserves. This is, of course, an unlikely scenario given that much of the banking system is state-owned and the government would probably back all deposits in the event of a financial panic. Moreover, capital control levers can be quite potent when the government directly controls much of the banking system and, therefore, the main conduits for large capital outflows.
という記述があり、金融と経済の破綻が生じる可能性が低い根拠として、国が銀行システムを支配しているために問題のある企業に資金を振り向けたり預金を全面的に保証したり海外への資本流出を抑えたりできること、および、外貨建て債務が少ないことを挙げている。
