Title:Can tweets predict article retractions? A comparison between human and LLM labelling

Abstract:Quickly detecting problematic research articles is crucial to safeguarding the integrity of scientific research. This study explores whether Twitter mentions of retracted articles can signal potential problems with the articles prior to their retraction, potentially serving as an early warning system for scholars. To investigate this, we analysed a dataset of 4,354 Twitter mentions associated with 504 retracted articles. The effectiveness of Twitter mentions in predicting article retractions was evaluated by both manual and Large Language Model (LLM) labelling. Manual labelling results indicated that 25.7% of tweets signalled problems before retraction. Using the manual labelling results as the baseline, we found that LLMs (GPT-4o-mini, Gemini 1.5 Flash, and Claude-3.5-Haiku) outperformed lexicon-based sentiment analysis tools (e.g., TextBlob) in detecting potential problems, suggesting that automatic detection of problematic articles from social media using LLMs is technically feasible. Nevertheless, since only a small proportion of retracted articles (11.1%) were criticised on Twitter prior to retraction, such automatic systems would detect only a minority of problematic articles. Overall, this study offers insights into how social media data, coupled with emerging generative AI techniques, can support research integrity.