Measuring reopening readiness: a universal COVID-19 index for US states

While United States is among countries with the world’s highest coronavirus infections, its approaches and policies to reopen the economy vary by state. A lack of objective criteria and monitoring toward satisfying the criteria can lead to another COVID-19 outbreak and business closures. Considering the pressing need to return to normalcy without a rebound of COVID-19 infections and deaths, an index that provides a data-driven and objective insight is urgently needed. Hence, a method was devised to assess the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the degree of progress any state has made in containing the spread of COVID-19.

Using measures such as the weekly averages of daily new deaths, ICU bed occupancy rates, positive cases and test positivity rates, two indexes were developed: COVID-19 reopening readiness and severity.

A clear difference in the pandemic severity trends can be observed between states, which is possibly due to the disparity in the state’s response to coronavirus. A sharp upward trend in index values requires caution prior to moving to the next phase of reopening.

The composite indexes advanced in this study will provide a universal, standardized and unbiased view of each state’s readiness to reopen and allow comparisons between states. This in turn can help governments and health-care agencies take counter measures if needed as to the anticipated demand for future health-care services and minimize adverse consequences of opening.