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Limited quantity and quality of steel supply in a zero-emission future

Nature Sustainability volume 6, pages 336–343 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Achieving a zero-emission future depends greatly on how steel production is decarbonized within a limited time frame. Here we show that the production of zero-emission steel is possible but that the quantity and quality of steel may be limited by scrap downcycling. Using Japan as a case study, our analysis shows that most steel scrap is currently downcycled into construction materials, thereby limiting scrap-based steel to only 20% of the total steel used for automobiles, compared to 60% for buildings. Under a strict carbon budget, such downcycling practices could limit the production of steel used for automobiles to ~40% of current levels by 2050, even if production technology progresses according to the roadmap. The results indicate that steel users should not take the current level of steel supply for granted in a zero-emission future. Decarbonizing the steel sector, therefore, will depend not only on stand-alone efforts by the steel industry but on joint action with steel users to enable scrap upcycling and service provision with less steel use.

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Fig. 1: Map of steel flows from raw materials to end-use goods in Japan in 2019.
Fig. 2: Production of crude steel, finished steel and end-use goods, available under the carbon budget in Japan, 2010–2050.
Fig. 3: In-use steel stocks available under the carbon budget in Japan, 2010–2050.

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Data availability

The input data and model results of this study have been deposited on GitHub (https://github.com/takumawatari/material-budget-steel). Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The full model code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/takumawatari/material-budget-steel).

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported in part by JSPS KAKENHI (21K12344 and 22K18433), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20223001) and JST-Mirai Program (JPMJMI21I5). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. We also thank W. Takayanagi for providing helpful comments on graph visualization.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Material Cycles Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

    Takuma Watari, Sho Hata, Kenichi Nakajima & Keisuke Nansai

  2. Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    Takuma Watari

  3. Institute for Sustainable Future, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Takuma Watari

  4. Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan

    Sho Hata & Kenichi Nakajima

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Contributions

T.W. designed the study. T.W. performed the analyses. T.W., S.H., K. Nakajima and K. Nansai prepared the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Takuma Watari.

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Nature Sustainability thanks Kazuyo Matsubae, Katerina Kermeli, Mariesse van Sluisveld and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Watari, T., Hata, S., Nakajima, K. et al. Limited quantity and quality of steel supply in a zero-emission future. Nat Sustain 6, 336–343 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01025-0

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