A novel three-dimension perspective to explore technology evolution | Scientometrics Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

A novel three-dimension perspective to explore technology evolution

  • Published:
Scientometrics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In terms of technology evolution pathways, patents, articles and projects are the traditional analytical dimensions, particularly patent analysis. Analysis results based on traditional dimensions are used to present the evolutionary stage based on the theory of the technology life cycle (TLC). However, traditional TLC is insufficient to explain the inner driving force of technology evolution; instead, it just describes the process. Promoting ideality degree, one of evolutionary principles in the framework of Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadatch, is combined with patent and article analysis, and then a novel three-dimensional analytical method is introduced. In a case study with one curial material and novel technology, graphene attracted the attention of all types of organizations, but the development prospects of the graphene industry are not clear, and its potential abilities and applications should be deeply explored.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
¥17,985 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (Japan)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen, M. J., Tung, V. C., & Kaner, R. B. (2010). Honeycomb carbon: A review of graphene. Chemical Reviews, 110(1), 132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alvarez-Betancourt, Y., & Garcia-Silvente, M. (2014). An overview of iris recognition: A bibliometric analysis of the period 2000–2012. Scientometrics, 101(3), 2003–2033.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arthur D. L. (1981). The strategic management of technology. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

  • Arundel, A., & Kabla, J. (1998). What percentage of innovation are patented? Experimental estimates in European firms. Research Policy, 27, 127–141.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Ratha, A. (2008). S-curve at the industry level: Evidence from US–UK commodity trade. Empirical Economics, 35(1), 141–152.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bailey, M. P. (2014). Grapping with graphene: The race to commercialization. Chemical Engineering, 121(6), 13–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Basberg, B. L. (1987). Patents and the measurement of technological change: A survey of the documentation. Research Policy, 16(2–4), 131–141.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blau, J. (2013). Europe betting big on graphene. Research Technology Management, 56(4), 7–8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, R. S. (1983). Patent trends as a technological forecasting tool. World Patent Information, 3, 137–143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho, M. M., Fleury, A., & Lopes, A. P. (2013). An overview of the literature on technology roadmapping (TRM): Contributions and trends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80, 1418–1437.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daim, T., Iskin, I., Li, X., et al. (2013). Patent analysis of wind energy technology using the patent alert system. World Patent Information, 34, 37–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao, L., Porter, A. L., Wang, J., et al. (2013). Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80, 398–407.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geim, A. K. (2009). Graphene: Status and prospects. Science, 2009(324), 1530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geum, Y., Lee, S., & Park, Y. (2014). Combining technology roadmap and system dynamics simulation to support scenario-planning: A case of car-sharing service. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 71(5), 37–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glänzel, W., & Zhou, P. (2011). Publication activity, citation impact and bi-links between publications and patents in biotechnology. Scientometrics, 86, 505–525.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gort, M., & Klepper, S. (1982). Time paths in the diffusion of product innovation. The Economic Journal, 92, 630–6531.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haupt, R., Kloyer, M., & Lange, M. (2007). Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development. Research Policy, 36, 387–398.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, C., Su, J., Xie, X., et al. (2015). A bibliometric study of China’s science and technology policies: 1949–2010. Scientometrics, 102(2), 1521–1539.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, L., Zhang, Y., Guo, Y., et al. (2014). Four dimensional Science and Technology planning: A new approach based on bibliometrics and technology roadmapping. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 81, 39–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ilevbare, I. M., Probert, D., & Phaal, R. (2013). A review of TRIZ, and its benefits and challenges in practice. Technovation, 33, 30–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Järvenpää, H. M., Mäkinen, S. J., & Seppänen, M. (2011). Patent and publishing activity sequence over a technology’s life cycle. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78, 283–293.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeong, D.-H., & Song, M. (2014). Time gap analysis by the topic model-based temporal technique. Journal of informetrics, 8(3), 776–790.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, J., Kim, F., & Huang, J. (2010). Seeing graphene-based sheets. Master Today, 13(3), 28.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, J., & Berente, N. (2013). The era of incremental change in the technology innovation life cycle: An analysis of the automotive emission control industry. Research Policy, 42, 1469–1481.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, C., Jeon, J., & Park, Y. (2011). Monitoring trends of technological changes based on the dynamic patent lattice: A modified formal concept analysis approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78, 690–702.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mochrle, M. G., & Lessing, H. (2004). Profiling technological competencies of companies: A case study based on the theory of inventive problem solving. Creativity and Innovation Management, 13(4), 231–239.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mogee, M. E. (1991). Using patent data for technology analysis and planning. Research Technology Management, 34, 43–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Novoselov, K. S., Geim, A. K., Morozov, S. V., et al. (2004). Electric field effect in atomically thin carbon films. Science (Washington), 306(5696), 666–669.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park, Y., Lee, S., & Lee, S. (2012). Patent analysis for promoting technology transfer in multi-technology industries: The Korean aerospace industry case. Journal of Technology Transfer, 37(3), 355–374.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Park, H., Yoon, J., & Kim, K. (2013). Using function-based patent analysis to identify potential application areas of technology for technology transfer. Expert Systems with Applications, 40, 5260–5265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pei, R., & Porter, A. L. (2011). Profiling leading scientists in nanobiomedical science: Interdisciplinarity and potential leading indicators of research directions. R&D Management, 41(3), 288–306.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Regazzoni, D., Rizzi, C., & Nani, R. (2011). A TRIZ-based approach to manage innovation and intellectual property. International Journal of Technology Management, 55(3–4), 274.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roessner, D., Porter, A. L., & Nersessian, N. J. (2013). Validating indicators of interdisciplinarity: linking bibliometric measures to studies of engineering research labs. Scientometrics, 94(2), 439–468.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sha, J., Zhao, Y., Luo, Y., & Zheng, J. (2013). Study on the trends of global graphene tech-innovation based on patent analysis. Materials Review, 27(8), 108–112.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, M., & Taylor, A. (2012). The technology life cycle: Conceptualization and managerial implications. International Journal of Production Economics, 140, 541–553.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tenaglia, S., & Ventura, M. (2012). How to protect better intellectual property. European Journal of Law and Economics, 33, 393–397.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thatcher, M. E., & Oliver, J. R. (2001). The impact of technology investments on a firm’s production efficiency, product quality, and productivity. Journal of Management Information Systems, 18(2), 17–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vernon, R. (1966). International investment and international trade in the product cycle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 190–207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yoon, B., & Park, Y. (2007). Development of new technology forecasting algorithm: Hybrid approach for morphology analysis and conjoint analysis of patent information. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 54(3), 588–599.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, F., & Xu, Y. (2007). Research on technical strategy for new product development based on TRIZ evolution theory. International Journal of Product Development, 4(1), 13–18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y., Zhou, X., & Porter, A. L. (2014). Triple Helix innovation in China’s dye-sensitized solar cell industry: Hybrid methods with semantic TRIZ and technology roadmapping. Scientometrics, 99(1), 55–75.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, X., Zhang, Y., Porter, A. L., Guo, Y., et al. (2014). A patent analysis method to trace technology evolutionary pathways. Scientometrics, 100, 705–772.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This paper is partly supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2013XMS03), the Soft Science Research Project (No. 2013B070206020); and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory Open Foundation (No. 2011A06090100101B).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510641, China

    Munan Li

Authors
  1. Munan Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Munan Li.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Li, M. A novel three-dimension perspective to explore technology evolution. Scientometrics 105, 1679–1697 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1591-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1591-9

Keywords