Abstract
The emerging need for societal transitions raises the need for a better understanding of the dynamic nature of large scale societal systems, and therefore the development of an analytical approach for drawing dynamic conclusions based on system’s dynamic mechanisms, feedback relationships and interacting components.
The objective of this study is to explore the degree to which System Dynamics as an approach enhances the process of understanding transition dynamics in socio-technical systems. In other words, it is aimed to reveal the type of insights that can be developed about such systems and their dynamic behaviour using the approach, as well as the shortcomings of the approach in this challenging task. In order to do so, a modeling study aiming to understand the underlying mechanisms of the waste management transition in the Netherlands is conducted.
The quantitative model developed is based on the historical case of the waste management transition of the Netherlands, and it portrays issues as the dynamics of actors’ preferences, development of infrastructure and environmental consequences of dominant mode of functioning and provides an instance for demonstrating and evaluating the feedback-focused perspective discussed in this paper.
Finally, the paper discusses a set of points regarding the utilized approach, System Dynamics, observed during this study both in general and in the specific context of transitions. In short, System Dynamics stands as a promising approach mainly due to its strength in explaining the source of complex dynamics based on interacting feedback loops, but it also has certain drawbacks in the context of transitions.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Barlas Y (1996) Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics. Syst Dyn Rev 12(3):183–210
Barlas Y, Kanar K (1999) A dynamic pattern-oriented test for model validation. In: Proceedings of 4th systems science European congress, Valencia, 1999. http://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/~ybarlas/BarlasKorhan99.pdf
Berkhout F, Smith A, Stirling A (2004) Socio-technological regimes and transition contexts, chap 3. System innovation and the transition to sustainability: theory, evidence and policy. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham Glos
Coleman J (1990) Foundations of social theory. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Coyle G (2000) Qualitative and quantitative modelling in system dynamics: some research questions. Syst Dyn Rev 16(3):225–244
Fiddaman T (1997) Feedback complexity in integrated climate-economy models. PhD thesis, Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Forrester J (1961) Industrial dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge
Forrester J (1969) Urban dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge
Forrester J, Senge P (1980) Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models. System dynamics. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp 209–228
Geels F (2002) Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case study. Res Policy 31:1257–1274
Geels F (2005a) Co-evolution of technology and society: the transition in water supply and personal hygiene in the Netherlands (1850–1930)—a case study in multi-level perspective. Technol Soc 27:363–397
Geels F (2005b) The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: a multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles. Technol Anal Strateg Manag 17(4):445–476
Geels F, Schot J (2007) Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Res Policy 36:399–417
Guneralp B (2006) Towards coherent loop dominance analysis: progress in eigenvalue elasticity analysis. Syst Dyn Rev 22(3):263–289
Homer J (1987) A diffusion model with application to evolving medical technologies. Technol Forecast Soc Change 31(3):197–218
Kampmann C, Oliva R (2006) Loop eigenvalue elasticity analysis: three case studies. Syst Dyn Rev 22(2):141–162
Keeney R, Gregory R (2005) Selecting attributes to measure the achievement of objectives. Oper Res 53(1):1–11
Keeney R, Raiffa H (1993) Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Loorbach D (2007) Transition management: new mode of governance for sustainable development. PhD thesis, Erasmus University, Rotterdam
Mahajan V, Peterson R (1985) Models for innovation diffusion. Quantitative applications in the social sciences. Sage, Thousand Oaks
Mahajan V, Muller E, Wind Y (eds) (2000) New-product diffusion models. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht
Meadows D, Meadows D, Randers J, Behrens W (1972) The limits to growth. Potomac Associates, New York
Oliva R (2004) Model structure analysis through graph theory: partition heuristics and feedback structure decomposition. Syst Dyn Rev 20(4):313–336
Randers J (1980) Guidelines for model conceptualization. In: Randers J (ed) Elements of the system dynamics method. Productivity Press, Cambridge
Richardson G, Pugh A (1961) Introduction to system dynamics modelling with DYNAMO. MIT Press, Cambridge
Richardson GP (1991) Feedback thought in social science and systems theory. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia
Rogers E (1983) Diffusion of innovations, 3rd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Rotmans J (2005) Societal innovation: between dream and reality lies complexity. Erasmus University, Rotterdam
Rotmans J, Kemp R, Asselt M (2001) More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. Foresight 3(1):15–31
Schade B, Schade W (2005) Assessment of environmentally sustainable transport scenarios by a backcasting approach with escot. In: Proceedings of the 23th International conference of the system dynamics society, Boston, 2005
Sterman J (1981) The energy transition and the economy: a system dynamics approach. PhD thesis, Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sterman J (1994) Learning in and about complex systems. Syst Dyn Rev 10(1):291–330
Sterman J (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston
Struben J, Sterman J (2008) Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems. Environment and planning B: planning and design advance online publication
Unruh GC (2000) Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy 28:817–830
Unruh GC (2002) Escaping carbon lock-in. Energy Policy 30:317–325
van der Brugge R, Rotmans J, Loorbach D (2005) The transition in Dutch water management. Reg Environ Change 5:164–176
Yücel G, Barlas Y (2007) Pattern-based system design/optimization. In: Sterman J, Oliva R (eds) Proceedings of the 25th international conference of the system dynamics society, Boston, 2007. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2007/proceed/index.htm
Yücel G, Chiong Meza CM (2007) Benefiting from the other: proposals on incorporating agent based and system dynamics approaches. In: Amblard F (ed) Proceedings of the 4th conference of the European social simulation association, Toulouse, 2007. http://essa2007.free.fr/ESSA2007Proceedings.pdf
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
About this article
Cite this article
Yücel, G., Chiong Meza, C.M. Studying transition dynamics via focusing on underlying feedback interactions. Comput Math Organiz Theor 14, 320–349 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-008-9032-4
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-008-9032-4