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Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

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Abstract

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021–2050 period, while for 2071–2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as “Near-normal”, in terms of drought conditions.

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Acknowledgments

The input meteorological data were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). For the stations of Edirne (Turkish territory) and Kurdjali (Bulgarian territory), the data were obtained from www.ogimet.com.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwigs University of Freiburg, D-79085, Freiburg, Germany

    Spyridon Paparrizos, Markus Weiler & Andreas Matzarakis

  2. Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Pantazidou str. 192, -68200, Orestiada, GR, Greece

    Fotios Maris

  3. Research Center Human-Biometeorology, German Weather Service, Stefan-Meier-Str. 4, D-79104, Freiburg, Germany

    Andreas Matzarakis

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  1. Spyridon Paparrizos
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Correspondence to Spyridon Paparrizos.

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Paparrizos, S., Maris, F., Weiler, M. et al. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 259–270 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1964-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1964-x

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