Abstract
Electricity demand forecasting plays a crucial role in the operation of electrical power systems because it can provide management decisions related to load switching and power grid. Thus, there have been models developed to estimate the electricity demand. However, inaccurate demand forecasting may raise the operating cost of electric power sector, which means that it would waste considerable money. In this paper, a novel modeling framework was proposed for forecasting electricity demand. Sample entropy was developed to identify the nonlinearity and uncertainty in the original time series, after that redundant noise was removed through a decomposition technique. Besides, the most optimal modes of original series and the optimal input form of the model were determined by the feature selection method. Finally, electricity demand series can be conducted forecasting through least squares support vector machine tuned by multi-objective sine cosine optimization algorithm. The case studies of Australia demonstrated that the proposed framework can ensure high accuracy and strong stability. Thus, it can be considered as a useful tool for electricity demand forecasting.
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- MBE:
-
Mean bias error
- QLD:
-
Queensland
- SE:
-
Sample entropy
- SA:
-
South Australia
- NSW:
-
New South Wales
- VMs:
-
Variational modes
- MAE:
-
Mean absolute error
- SCA:
-
Sine–cosine algorithm
- PSR:
-
Phase space reconstruction
- SVM:
-
Support vector machine
- ANN:
-
Artificial neural network
- LSSVM:
-
Least squares support vector machine
- ADMM:
-
Alternate direction method of multipliers
- ARIMA:
-
Autoregressive integrated moving average
- SARIMA:
-
Multi-objective sine cosine algorithm
- VMD:
-
Variational mode decomposition
- SE:
-
Sample entropy
- VM:
-
Variational modes
- DWT:
-
Discrete wavelet transform
- NWP:
-
Numerical weather prediction
- EMD:
-
Ensemble mode decomposition
- SVR:
-
Support vector regression
- THI:
-
Theil inequality coefficient
- MAPE:
-
Mean absolute percentage error
- PACF:
-
Partial autocorrelation function
- VMD:
-
Variational mode decomposition
- BPNN:
-
Backpropagation neural network
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Li, R., Chen, X., Balezentis, T. et al. Multi-step least squares support vector machine modeling approach for forecasting short-term electricity demand with application. Neural Comput & Applic 33, 301–320 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-04996-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-04996-3