Abstract
In financial applications, stock-market trend prediction has long been a popular subject. In this research, we develop a new predictive model to improve the accuracy by enhancing the denoising process which includes a training set selection based on four K-nearest neighbour (KNN) classifiers to generate a more representative training set and a denoising autoencoder-based deep architecture as kernel predictor. Considering the good agreement between closing price trends and daily extreme price movements, we forecast extreme price movements as an indirect channel for realising accurate price-trend prediction. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of its accuracy compared with traditional machine-learning models in four principal Chinese stock indexes and nine leading individual stocks from nine different major industry sectors.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barak, S., Modarres, M.: Developing an approach to evaluate stocks by forecasting effective features with data mining methods. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(3), 1325–1339 (2015)
Kamran, R.: Prediction of stock market performance by using machine learning techniques. In: Proceedings of 2017 International Conference on Innovations in Electrical Engineering and Computational Technologies (2017)
Sheelapriya, G., Murugesan, R.: Stock price trend prediction using Bayesian regularised radial basis function network model. Span. J. Finan. Account. 46(2), 189–211 (2017)
Weng, B., Ahmed, M.A., Megahed, F.M.: Stock market one-day ahead movement prediction using disparate data sources. Expert Syst. Appl. 79, 153–163 (2017)
Ding, X., Zhang, Y., Liu, T., Duan, J.: Deep learning for event-driven stock prediction. In: Proceedings of 24th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 2327–2333 (2015)
Liu, Y., Qin, Z., Li, P., Wan, T.: Stock volatility prediction using recurrent neural networks with sentiment analysis. In: Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems, pp. 192–201 (2017)
Fama, E.F.: Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J. Finan. 25(2), 383–417 (1970)
Patel, J., Shah, S., Thakkar, P., Kotecha, K.: Predicting stock market index using fusion of machine learning techniques. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(4), 2162–2172 (2015)
Qiu, M., Yu, S.: Predicting the direction of stock market index movement using an optimized artificial neural network model. Plos One 11(5), e0155133 (2016)
Kara, Y., Boyacioglu, M.A., Baykan, Ö.K.: Predicting direction of stock price index movement using artificial neural networks and support vector machines: the sample of the Istanbul stock exchange. Expert Syst. Appl. 38(5), 5311–5319 (2011)
Patel, J., Shah, S., Thakkar, P., Kotecha, K.: Predicting stock and stock price index movement using trend deterministic data preparation and machine learning techniques. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(1), 259–268 (2015)
Lin, Y., Guo, H., Hu, J.: An svm-based approach for stock market trend prediction. In: Proceedings of 2013 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, pp. 1–7 (2013)
Weerachart, L., Nunnapus, B.: Stock price trend prediction using artificial neural network techniques: case study: Thailand stock exchange. In: Computer Science and Engineering Conference (2017)
Chen, Y., Hao, Y.: A feature weighted support vector machine and k-nearest neighbor algorithm for stock market indices prediction. Expert Syst. Appl. 80, 340–355 (2017)
Ballings, M., den Poel, D.V., Hespeels, N., Gryp, R.: Evaluating multiple classifiers for stock price direction prediction. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(20), 7046–7056 (2015)
Bengio, Y., Lamblin, P., Popovici, D., Larochelle, H.: Greedy layer-wise training of deep networks. In: Proceedings of 20th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, pp. 153–160 (2006)
Shynkevich, Y., McGinnity, T.M., Coleman, S.A., Belatreche, A.: Forecasting movements of health-care stock prices based on different categories of news articles using multiple kernel learning. Decis. Support Syst. 85, 74–83 (2016)
Laboissiere, L.A., Fernandes, R.A.S., Lage, G.G.: Maximum and minimum stock price forecasting of Brazilian power distribution companies based on artificial neural networks. Appl. Soft Comput. 35, 66–74 (2015)
Gorenc Novak, M., Velušček, D.: Prediction of stock price movement based on daily high prices. Quant. Finan. 16(5), 793–826 (2016)
Milosevic, N.: Equity forecast: Predicting long term stock price movement using machine learning (2016). arXiv preprint: arXiv:1603.00751
Yeh, C., Huang, C., Lee, S.: A multiple-kernel support vector regression approach for stock market price forecasting. Expert Syst. Appl. 38(3), 2177–2186 (2011)
Chen, S., Manalu, G.M.T., Pan, J., Liu, H.: Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and particle swarm optimization techniques. IEEE Trans. Cybern. 43(3), 1102–1117 (2013)
Sadegh, B.I., Mohammad, B.: Forecasting the direction of stock market index movement using three data mining techniques: the case of tehran stock exchange. Int. J. Eng. Res. Appl. 4(6), 106–117 (2014)
Dixon, M.F., Klabjan, D., Bang, J.H.: Classification-based financial markets prediction using deep neural networks. In: Algorithmic Finance, pp. 1–20 (2016)
Akita, R., Yoshihara, A., Matsubara, T., Uehara, K.: Deep learning for stock prediction using numerical and textual information. In: Proceedings of 15th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, pp. 1–6 (2016)
Zeng, Z., Xiao, H., Zhang, X.: Self CNN-based time series stream forecasting. Electron. Lett. 52(22), 1857–1858 (2016)
Rather, A.M., Agarwal, A., Sastry, V.N.: Recurrent neural network and a hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(6), 3234–3241 (2015)
Vincent, P., Larochelle, H., Lajoie, I., Bengio, Y., Manzagol, P.: Stacked denoising autoencoders: learning useful representations in a deep network with a local denoising criterion. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11, 3371–3408 (2010)
Acknowledgement
This study was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61332018).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Sun, H., Rong, W., Zhang, J., Liang, Q., Xiong, Z. (2017). Stacked Denoising Autoencoder Based Stock Market Trend Prediction via K-Nearest Neighbour Data Selection. In: Liu, D., Xie, S., Li, Y., Zhao, D., El-Alfy, ES. (eds) Neural Information Processing. ICONIP 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10635. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70096-0_90
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70096-0_90
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-70095-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-70096-0
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)