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Forecasting the Final Penetration Rate of Online Travel Agencies in Different Hotel Segments

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Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2016

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Abstract

This research uses data on distribution channels of hotels gathered through a yearly survey addressed to Swiss hotels since 2006. The authors use the evolution of Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) market share as a time series which can be modelled using different growth curve methods. These various models cross-validate the forecasted final penetration rate. The study analyses the dynamics of the evolution of OTAs and determines their final penetration rate not only on an overall level, but also segmented by hotel category, location and size. Overall, a final penetration of around 35 % is predicted by our models, but they show also that the level of final penetration of OTAs depends on the typology of the hotel. The paper sheds some light on the statistical difficulties in forecasting with a limited set of data and gives insights into the future evolution of the distribution mix which is essential for the marketing and pricing strategy of hotels.

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Acknowledgements

A first draft of this paper was presented at the 2013 conference of the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism (AIEST) (Izmir-Turkey, 25–29.8.2013). The authors thank the participants for the comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Tourism, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Western Switzerland, Delémont, Switzerland

    Miriam Scaglione & Roland Schegg

Authors
  1. Miriam Scaglione
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  2. Roland Schegg
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Miriam Scaglione .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Tourism, Bournemouth University, Poole, Dorset, United Kingdom

    Alessandro Inversini

  2. HES-SO Valais, Sierre, Valais, Switzerland

    Roland Schegg

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Scaglione, M., Schegg, R. (2016). Forecasting the Final Penetration Rate of Online Travel Agencies in Different Hotel Segments. In: Inversini, A., Schegg, R. (eds) Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2016. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28231-2_51

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