Keywords

1 Introduction

Commercial ports may be classified according to the generation criterion (see [1,2,3]; and the references included). According to the literature, a third-generation port is a container port, where added value of the goods in transit may be incremented due to the manipulations of freight. Therefore, given a port a and a port b, a port b is more competitive than a port a, if it is verified the following equation:

\(added\, \, value\,in\,port\,b\, > \,added\,value\,in\,porta\)

Third-generation ports have been studied in the scientific literature, both in terms of physical components, such as transport and logistic infrastructures [4]; and in terms of intangible components, such as the research infrastructures of firms, universities and research centres [5]. A large container hub port belonging to the third-generation and located in an underdeveloped EU region was extensively studied by identifying the limits, the weaknesses and the measures to be implemented to increase value added in a third-generation port [6, 7]. The relationship with the hinterland and, in particular, with the research centres were studied in [8]. The main industrial sectors, such as logistics, mechanics and agri-food, connected to a third-generation port were analysed respectively in [9,10,11].

Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are one of the measures able to allow the increasing of added value in a third-generation port. In particular, recent studies analysed the effects of the activation of a SEZ in terms of territorial attractiveness [12], aggregate and disaggregate economic impacts [13, 14]. The role of higher education and research and the effects of administrative simplifications for SEZ development are analysed respectively in [15] and [16]. The generation of added value may be further amplified in core ports which are connected to a TEN-T and RFC corridor and where the three pillars of smartness, ICT, Transport and Energy, are present [17].

A recent study [18] reports a comparison of export-import times of goods in countries having similar technical-administrative structures and belonging to the EU area. These countries present high variances in export times of freight in relation to an average value of ten days. After the publication of [18], the Italian Government released an analysis of times components connected to export operations, such as documentation, custom, handling and transport [19]. It emerged that custom times were similar in all countries, while documentation and handling times were considerably different. The documentation and custom times depended on the administration of the country, not on the ports, and they influenced in the export capacities.

The paper deals with time-series models able to estimate the economic impact generated by a place-based measure (as SEZ) in a region, where a European core port connected with a TEN-T corridor is present. The test case concerns a planned SEZ in Calabria region. The main objective of Regional Government of Calabria, defined in the strategic development plan of SEZ of 2018, was to facilitate the settlement of industrial firms in port-related areas of Gioia Tauro in order to increase the added value, according to the paradigm of the third-generation port [3, 20].

The following part of the paper is articulated into three sections. Section 2 sketches the current situation of container traffic in Euro-Mediterranean area in relation to the growth rates of economy of the different regions. Section 3 presents the time-series estimation of export and employment of firms settled in Calabria generated by the implementation of a SEZ. The last section concerns the conclusions and the research perspectives.

The model presented in the paper, in the context of a more general modelling framework, could support planners at national and regional level and for port authorities. The model is also useful for researchers in field related to the sustainable development of ports (see [21,22,23], and references included).

2 Container Traffic in the Euro-Mediterranean Area

The world economy returned to the pre-crisis levels in 2021 with an increase of +6.1% of GDP and of +10.1% of trade volumes respect to 2020 [24]. The Euro-Mediterranean area showed in the period 2018–2021 an increase of +7.7% in GDP and of +11.6% in consumption. By disaggregating the area into four regions (see Table 1), the growth of the Balkans and Turkey in GDP (+19.5%), and in consumption (+40.4%) emerges. North Africa faced smaller growth both in GDP (+13.2%) and in consumption (+17.4%). The values of GDP and consumption were stable in EU-Med and Middle East regions: +2.2% of GDP and +0.5% of consumption in EU-Med, and +5.0% of GDP and −2.4% of consumption in Middle East [25].

Table 1. GDP and consumption growth in Euro-Mediterranean area during 2018–2022.
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The total amount of investments in the Euro-Mediterranean area was 531 billion of US$, equal to the 7.9% of the global investments in the period 2018–2022. As a matter of fact, while the main investors in 2018 in Merger & Acquisition were USA (20% of total operations) and China (11% of total operations), the main investors in 2021 were France, Italy and Spain with the 39% of total operations [25].

Global container throughput reached 802 million TEU in 2019. Similar to the financial crisis of 2008–09, the Covid-19 pandemic caused a negative growth; however, container throughput has exceeded in 2021 pre-pandemic levels, reaching 849 million TEUs.

The centrality of the Mediterranean Sea in the global traffic was still confirmed after the pandemic, as it accounted for 20% of global maritime traffic and for 27% of container traffic in 2021. Several transhipment hub ports operate in the Mediterranean area, some of them handle a throughput greater than 3 million of TEUs/year in the last three years (see Table 2).

The forecasts show that Euro-Mediterranean ports will in general increase their container traffic by 2025, with an expected annual average increase of +4.3%. Despite the Ukraine conflict, the East-Mediterranean ports (in Balkans, Turkey and Middle east areas), mainly due to the performance of ports such as Piraeus, will perform an increment of +4.5% of traffic. Ports of North Africa will perform a traffic increment of +5.4%; while West Mediterranean ports will perform +3.8% of traffic [26].

The container ports generate a relevant economic impact when they are able to fully develop their third-generation nature [3, 4], also due to the development of closer SEZs. The three more dynamic SEZs of the Mediterranean Sea are: Suez Canal (Egypt), Tanger-Med (Morocco), Mersin (Turkey). The SEZ of Suez Canal has four industrial zones and six ports including Port Said. The SEZ generated 100,000 direct jobs and the investments allocated over the last seven years were approximately 18 billion US$. The SEZ of Tanger-Med generated 8.8 billion euro of exports and hosted about 1,000 export-oriented firms, employing some 90,000 people. The SEZ of Mersin employed 9,600 people, with a trade value of 3.8 billion US$ [24].

Table 2. Main transhipment hub ports in Euro-Mediterranean area (period 2020–2022).
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3 Time-Series Economic Impact of SEZ: Test Case for Calabria

3.1 Time-Series Models

Time-series models are founded on stochastic processes theory, according to which a time-series can be defined as a finite part of a single realization of a stochastic process [27]. Time-series, therefore, is a non-exhaustive partial realization of a stochastic process. Starting from the observed time-series, a stochastic model is assumed in order to determine the process generating the observed data.

A time-series, {xt}, with t = 1, 2, …., n, is an ordered sequence of n real numbers that measures a given phenomenon xt, observed with regard to its evolution with respect to the time t.

Several types of time-series models have been proposed in the literature. Their classification can be made on the basis of different criteria:

  • univariate and multivariate models, according to whether the evolution of time-series is justified in itself or with reference to the evolution of other series;

  • models that explicitly or implicitly show the presence of components of the time series.

An elementary time-series model is given by the following equation:

$$ \mathrm{x}_{\mathrm{t}} = f(\mathrm{t}) + \upvarepsilon_{\mathrm{t}} ,\quad \quad \mathrm{with}\,\mathrm{t} = 1,2, \ldots ,\mathrm{n} $$
(1)

where:

f(t) is an (explicit) mathematical function of t;

εt, residual term.

3.2 Scenarios Definition

The economic impact of SEZ in Calabria, that has the hinterland of Gioia Tauro port as place where the highest concentration of industrial activities is expected, is linked to the growth of export and employment. The industrial settlements inside SEZ will therefore be oriented towards the export of goods on international markets, thus maximizing the benefits of the locating the SEZ close to the port of Gioia Tauro.

Two variables are considered in the estimation of economic impacts of the SEZ:

  • export of goods and services of industrial firms located in Calabria;

  • employment of industrial firms located in Calabria with (total or partial) foreign and domestic capital.

Two scenarios have been compared:

  • Do-Nothing, where export and employment are estimated over a period of seven years (ΔY = 7) from a starting year (Y = 1), with no SEZ and with the current economic policies;

  • SEZ, where export and employment are estimated over a period of seven years (ΔY = 7) from a starting year (Y = 1), with the activation of SEZ by assuming the complete availability of financial resources and decrees for simplification at the starting year.

Two categories of firms are considered in the analysis:

  • firms inside SEZ, or industrial firms settled in SEZ areas;

  • firms outside SEZ, or industrial firms settled out of SEZ areas.

The two scenarios and the two categories of firms generate four combinations of growth forecasts concerning export and employment:

  • firms inside SEZ in Do-nothing scenario;

  • firms outside SEZ in Do-nothing scenario;

  • firms inside SEZ in SEZ scenario;

  • firms inside SEZ in SEZ scenario.

3.3 Results

The following part of the section reports the yearly growth of export and employment of firms in presence of SEZ activation over a period of seven years (ΔY = 7) from a starting year (Y = 1).

Since the results of the evaluation depend on the starting values of export and employment, the values of a year (Y = 0) of firm inside and outside the SEZ were assumed as reference values (see more details in [13]).

The historical time-series of export and employment of industrial firms located in Calabria for a previous period (e.g. the decade 2008–2017) were provided by the Italian Institute of Statistics [38]. The following growth rates have been assumed as average values observed in historical time-series related to a previous period (e.g. the decade 2008–2017) (see Tables 3 and 4):

  • Do-Nothing scenario

    • export of Calabria will grow according to a constant growth rate equal to +2.0%;

    • employment of Calabria will grow according to a negative growth rate of −1.2% in foreign-capital firms and a positive growth rate of +2.0% in domestic-capital firms.

  • SEZ scenario

    • export of firms outside SEZ will grow assuming a constant growth rate: +2.0%:

    • export of firms inside SEZ and employment (both of domestic and foreign capital firms) have been estimated assuming a variable growth rate equal to the growth rates observed in international SEZs during the six years after their full activation (see [28, 29]).

Table 3. Growth rates of export after the full activation of the SEZ.
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Table 4. Growth rates of employment after the full activation of the SEZ.
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Table 5 presents the time-series of export values of firms operating in Calabria in the Do-nothing and SEZ scenarios. The estimated pattern shows that the increase of export is evident in the firms located inside the SEZ areas where the SEZ measures are effective (SEZ scenario), as expected, rather than the other areas of Calabria.

Table 5. Estimated export yearly values [MEuros] of export inside and outside SEZ.
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Table 6 presents the time-series of employment values of domestic and foreign firms in Calabria in the Do-nothing and SEZ scenarios. The pattern that could be observed is the following. The increase of employment is present in in the both domestic and foreign firms, as expected. In the case of foreign firms, the growth changes form a negative rate in the Do-Nothing scenario to a positive rate in the SEZ scenario.

Table 6. Estimated employment yearly values of employment for domestic and foreign firms.
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Figure 1 shows the time-series of export of firms in Calabria in the Do-nothing and SEZ scenarios. The pattern that could be observed in the picture is the following. The increase of export after the first year of activation of SEZ measures (Y = 1) is already consistent. The export increases with lower rates in the next five years (from years Y = 2 to Y = 6). The seventh year after the activation (Y = 7) it could be observed an increase with a n higher rate similar to the one of the first year.

Fig. 1.
figure 1

Time-series of export of firms in Calabria: Do-nothing and SEZ scenarios.

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Figure 2 shows the time-series of employment of firms in Calabria in the Do-nothing and SEZ scenarios. The pattern that could be observed in the picture is similar to the one observed for the export, as the rates of increase are higher in the first (Y = 0) and in the seventh (Y = 7) years after the activation of SEZ measures.

4 Conclusions

The paper presents a time-series analysis of economic impact generated by a SEZ in the Calabria (Italy). It is expected that the hinterland of the port of Gioia Tauro was the area where the greatest amount of industrial activities should be concentrated. The economic impacts of the SEZ was calculated taking into considerations the yearly growth of export and employment of industrial firms of Calabria. Two scenarios were compared: Do-Nothing, assuming the absence of SEZ; and SEZ, assuming that SEZ fully operates at a starting year (e.g. 2018).

The following final considerations may be reported according to the evaluation reported in the previous section (see Table 7). The export of firms inside SEZ should reach the value of 273 million of Euro after six years after the starting year (e.g. at year 2024) in the Do-nothing scenario; while their export should be equal to 929 million of Euro in the SEZ scenario. The export of firms outside SEZ should be equal to 223 million of Euro after ten years from the starting year (e.g. at year 2024), whatever the scenario will be (Do-nothing or SEZ). The employment of firms inside SEZ should be 1225 in Do-nothing scenario and 4095 in SEZ scenario after six years from the starting year (e.g. at year 2024). The employment of firms outside SEZ should be 10106 after six years from the starting year (e.g. at year 2024) in the Do-nothing scenario and 3256 in the SEZ scenario.

Fig. 2.
figure 2

Time-series of employment of firms in Calabria: Do-nothing and SEZ scenarios.

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Table 7. Estimated export and employment for each scenario and category of firms.
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Synthetically, the export should be equal to 496 million of Euro and the employment equal to 11332 workers in Calabria in the Do-nothing scenario; while the export should be equal to 1152 million of Euro and the employment equal to 17332 workers in Calabria in the SEZ scenario. The above values are assumed as reference values of direct impact generated by SEZ in Calabria used for the estimation of indirect and induced impacts.

Future developments are expected as far as concerns the calibration and validation of further specifications of multi-variate time-series models from a more extended set of observed data provided from worldwide SEZ experiences.