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Tracing and Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic Infections in Poland Using Spatial Interactions Models

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Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2021 (ICCSA 2021)

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Abstract

The nexus of factors influencing the dissemination of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is so complex that identification of (some) determining factors of COVID-19 spatial diffusion is significantly hampered. COVID-19 characterize of specific dynamics and enormous volume of morbidity. The aim of the study is construction of the model of spatial dissemination of COVID-19 in Poland, identification of the main outbreak places and spatial heterogeneity of pandemic based on the spatial set of first twelve months morbidity data (in 2020 and 2021). The target (prototypical) model is intended rather as the supporting tool than replacement of the well-known and used SIR or SEIR (Susceptible – Exposed – Infected - Recovered) models in epidemiology. It also assumed that the target model could be used as a priori estimation tool of the spatial locations of infections outbreaks as well as evaluation of future volume of infections due to changing numbers of exposed and recovered persons related also to, newly, introduced and continuation coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations. One of the expected advantages of the construed model is its spatial aspect i.e. it will enable to evaluate the potential spatial differentiation of infected number of people within the set of observed spatial units i.e. counties in Poland.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Susceptible – Exposed – Infected – Recovered.

  2. 2.

    i.e. a state of isolation or restricted access instituted as a security measure.

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Acknowledgment

This research was partially funded by IDUB against COVID-19 project granted by Warsaw University of Technology under the program Excellence Initiative: Research University (IDUB).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw, Krakowskie.Przedmiescie 30, 00-927, Warsaw, Poland

    Piotr A. Werner

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy

    Osvaldo Gervasi

  2. University of Basilicata, Potenza, Potenza, Italy

    Beniamino Murgante

  3. Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria

    Sanjay Misra

  4. University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy

    Chiara Garau

  5. University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy

    Ivan Blečić

  6. Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia

    David Taniar

  7. Kyushu Sangyo University, Fukuoka, Japan

    Bernady O. Apduhan

  8. University of Minho, Braga, Portugal

    Ana Maria A. C. Rocha

  9. Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari, Italy

    Eufemia Tarantino

  10. Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari, Italy

    Carmelo Maria Torre

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Werner, P.A. (2021). Tracing and Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic Infections in Poland Using Spatial Interactions Models. In: Gervasi, O., et al. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2021. ICCSA 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12954. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86979-3_45

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86979-3_45

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