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Analyzing the Driving Factors of Urban Transformation in the Province of Potenza (Basilicata Region-Italy)

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Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020 (ICCSA 2020)

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Abstract

The main transformation dynamics in the province of Potenza territory (Basilicata region in the south of Italy) correspond to those of urban sprinkling. The urban sprinkling phenomena is typical of mainly mountainous internal areas with indices of settlement density and artificial coverage ratios very low. The temporal and spatial analysis of the urban sprinkling phenomenon gives a picture of the transformation dynamics of the territory, i.e. the phenomena of fragmentation and compaction of the urban territory. Through a logistic regression, the driving factors that have affected the dynamics of urban transformation and specifically the phenomena of fragmentation and compaction between 1998 and 2013 will be analyzed. The two transformation phenomena (dependent variables Y), will be analyzed separately and built on the basis of the variation of the sprinkling index in the analyzed period. In the model, eleven independent variables concerning physical characteristics, proximity analysis, socioeconomic characteristics and the urban policies or constraints, have been considered.

The result of the logistic regression consists of two probability maps of change of the dependent variable Y from non-urban to fragmented or compacted. The indexes of the relative operational characteristic (ROC) of 0.85 and 0.84 respectively for compaction and fragmentation, testify the goodness of the model.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, 85100, Potenza, Italy

    Amedeo Ieluzzi, Lucia Saganeiti, Angela Pilogallo, Francesco Scorza & Beniamino Murgante

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  1. Amedeo Ieluzzi
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  2. Lucia Saganeiti
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  3. Angela Pilogallo
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  4. Francesco Scorza
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  5. Beniamino Murgante
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lucia Saganeiti .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy

    Osvaldo Gervasi

  2. University of Basilicata, Potenza, Potenza, Italy

    Beniamino Murgante

  3. Chair- Center of ICT/ICE, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria

    Sanjay Misra

  4. University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy

    Chiara Garau

  5. University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy

    Ivan Blečić

  6. Clayton School of Information Technology, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia

    David Taniar

  7. Department of Information Science, Kyushu Sangyo University, Fukuoka, Japan

    Bernady O. Apduhan

  8. University of Minho, Braga, Portugal

    Ana Maria A. C. Rocha

  9. Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari, Italy

    Eufemia Tarantino

  10. Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari, Italy

    Carmelo Maria Torre

  11. Department of Neurology, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA

    Yeliz Karaca

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Ieluzzi, A., Saganeiti, L., Pilogallo, A., Scorza, F., Murgante, B. (2020). Analyzing the Driving Factors of Urban Transformation in the Province of Potenza (Basilicata Region-Italy). In: Gervasi, O., et al. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020. ICCSA 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12252. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58811-3_31

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58811-3_31

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