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The Use of Multivariate Autoregressive Modelling for Analyzing Dynamical Physiological Responses of Individual Critically Ill Patients

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Biological and Medical Data Analysis (ISBMDA 2006)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNBI,volume 4345))

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Abstract

We attempted to find a way to distinguish survivors and non-survivors on the basis of the differences in the dynamics in both patient classes using multivariate autoregressive (MAR) time series analysis techniques. Time series data of 11 physiological variables were used to calculate MAR models. Data were taken from a subset of patients, with an intensive care unit length of stay of at least 20 days, from a database of a previously published randomized controlled trial [1]. The methodology was developed on 20 and validated on 16 patients. Based on the MAR coefficients, impulse response curves were simulated to describe the contributions of a single variable to fluctuations in another. The impulse responses of non-survivors had a tendency to be either more instable or to return to the initial level after a longer time than the responses of survivors did. This allowed us to distinguish survivors from non-survivors in the development cohort with a sensitivity of 0.70 and a selectivity of 1.00. This result was confirmed in the validation set where a sensitivity of 0.63 and a selectivity of 1.00 were reached.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division Measure, Model & Manage Bioresponses, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 30, B-3001, Leuven, Belgium

    Kristien Van Loon, Jean-Marie Aerts & Daniel Berckmans

  2. Department of Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital Gasthuisberg, Herestraat 49, B-3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Geert Meyfroidt & Greta Van den Berghe

Authors
  1. Kristien Van Loon
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  2. Jean-Marie Aerts
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  3. Geert Meyfroidt
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  4. Greta Van den Berghe
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  5. Daniel Berckmans
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. The Medical School, Lab of Medical Informatics, Aristotle University, Box 323, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Nicos Maglaveras  & Ioanna Chouvarda  & 

  2. Laboratory of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, P.O.Box 323, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Vassilis Koutkias

  3. Institute of Informatics, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, 60054, Frankfurt a.M., Germany

    Rüdiger Brause

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© 2006 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Van Loon, K., Aerts, JM., Meyfroidt, G., Van den Berghe, G., Berckmans, D. (2006). The Use of Multivariate Autoregressive Modelling for Analyzing Dynamical Physiological Responses of Individual Critically Ill Patients. In: Maglaveras, N., Chouvarda, I., Koutkias, V., Brause, R. (eds) Biological and Medical Data Analysis. ISBMDA 2006. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 4345. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/11946465_26

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/11946465_26

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-68063-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-68065-9

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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