{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2062055052","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2600057.2602886","title":"The wisdom of smaller, smarter crowds","display_name":"The wisdom of smaller, smarter crowds","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-05-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2062055052","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2600057.2602886","mag":"2062055052"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2600057.2602886","pdf_url":"http://dl.acm.org/ft_gateway.cfm?id=2602886&type=pdf","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true},"type":"article","type_crossref":"proceedings-article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"http://dl.acm.org/ft_gateway.cfm?id=2602886&type=pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007746083","display_name":"Daniel G. Goldstein","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0970-5598"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4401726785","display_name":"Microsoft Research New York City (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/056zprp28","country_code":null,"type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1290206253","https://openalex.org/I4401726785"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1290206253","display_name":"Microsoft (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00d0nc645","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1290206253"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel G. Goldstein","raw_affiliation_strings":["Microsoft Research, New York City, NY, USA#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Microsoft Research, New York City, NY, USA#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4401726785","https://openalex.org/I1290206253"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5089940510","display_name":"R. Preston McAfee","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2587-3161"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Randolph Preston McAfee","raw_affiliation_strings":["Google Strategic Technologies, Mountain View, CA, USA#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Google Strategic Technologies, Mountain View, CA, USA#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051257652","display_name":"Siddharth Suri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1318-8140"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1290206253","display_name":"Microsoft (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00d0nc645","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1290206253"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4401726785","display_name":"Microsoft Research New York City (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/056zprp28","country_code":null,"type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1290206253","https://openalex.org/I4401726785"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Siddharth Suri","raw_affiliation_strings":["Microsoft Research, New York City, NY, USA#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Microsoft Research, New York City, NY, USA#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1290206253","https://openalex.org/I4401726785"]}]}],"institution_assertions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":22.988,"has_fulltext":true,"fulltext_origin":"pdf","cited_by_count":71,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.998488,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"471","last_page":"488"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9995,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9995,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/luck","display_name":"Luck","score":0.784638},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/contest","display_name":"CONTEST","score":0.69009626}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777852691","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13430821","display_name":"Crowds","level":2,"score":0.85710704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61783943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1970348","display_name":"Luck","level":2,"score":0.784638},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777582232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5013414","display_name":"CONTEST","level":2,"score":0.69009626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207456731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q660818","display_name":"League","level":2,"score":0.6472194},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.62575996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C534859617","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5434357","display_name":"Fantasy","level":2,"score":0.53350997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4490328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.36480874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.26015556},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.12815964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1276947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333","display_name":"Astronomy","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2600057.2602886","pdf_url":"http://dl.acm.org/ft_gateway.cfm?id=2602886&type=pdf","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true},{"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.465.9305","pdf_url":"http://vita.mcafee.cc/PDF/smart_crowds.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400349","display_name":"CiteSeer X (The Pennsylvania State University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_indexed_in_scopus":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","host_organization_name":"Pennsylvania State University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Pennsylvania State University"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false}],"best_oa_location":{"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2600057.2602886","pdf_url":"http://dl.acm.org/ft_gateway.cfm?id=2602886&type=pdf","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"grants":[],"datasets":[],"versions":[],"referenced_works_count":16,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W12469298","https://openalex.org/W1983565784","https://openalex.org/W1993865115","https://openalex.org/W1997597215","https://openalex.org/W2003679592","https://openalex.org/W2034349542","https://openalex.org/W2063248556","https://openalex.org/W2139754276","https://openalex.org/W2151353604","https://openalex.org/W2151382108","https://openalex.org/W2159292941","https://openalex.org/W2161230965","https://openalex.org/W3123905867","https://openalex.org/W3202912068","https://openalex.org/W4238921918","https://openalex.org/W4249247059"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4295555270","https://openalex.org/W4286740636","https://openalex.org/W2946214509","https://openalex.org/W2735088306","https://openalex.org/W2628063975","https://openalex.org/W2606108738","https://openalex.org/W2590086693","https://openalex.org/W2387346515","https://openalex.org/W2356479129","https://openalex.org/W2352196451"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,65,128],"\"wisdom":[1],"of":[2,15,24,76,111,156,170,191,209],"crowds\"":[3],"refers":[4],"to":[5,42,121,149,166],"the":[6,22,63,117,130,138,164,168,189,192,207,217,227],"phenomenon":[7],"that":[8,89,176,186,198,225],"aggregated":[9],"predictions":[10],"from":[11,103,116,231],"a":[12,77,82,85,106,210,222],"large":[13],"group":[14],"people":[16,112],"can":[17,79,180],"rival":[18],"or":[19],"even":[20],"beat":[21,188],"accuracy":[23],"experts.":[25],"In":[26],"domains":[27,46],"with":[28,100],"substantial":[29,91],"stochastic":[30],"elements,":[31],"such":[32,73],"as":[33],"stock":[34],"picking,":[35],"crowd":[36,50,78],"strategies":[37],"(e.g.":[38],"indexing)":[39],"are":[40],"difficult":[41],"beat.":[43],"However,":[44],"in":[45,47,84,108,134,183,216],"which":[48,109],"some":[49],"members":[51],"have":[52],"demonstrably":[53],"more":[54,139],"skill":[55,92],"than":[56],"others,":[57],"smart":[58,74],"sub-crowds":[59],"could":[60],"possibly":[61],"outperform":[62],"whole.":[64],"central":[66],"question":[67,99],"this":[68,98,150],"work":[69],"addresses":[70],"is":[71,146],"whether":[72],"subsets":[75],"be":[80,122,181],"identified":[81,182],"priori":[83],"large-scale":[86],"prediction":[87],"contest":[88],"has":[90,213],"and":[93,163,185],"luck":[94],"components.":[95],"We":[96,174,195],"study":[97],"data":[101],"obtained":[102],"fantasy":[104,125,141],"soccer,":[105],"game":[107],"millions":[110,155],"choose":[113],"professional":[114,131],"players":[115,132,200],"English":[118],"Premier":[119],"League":[120],"on":[123],"their":[124],"soccer":[126,145],"teams.":[127],"better":[129,203],"do":[133,202],"real":[135],"life":[136],"games,":[137],"points":[140],"teams":[142],"earn.":[143],"Fantasy":[144],"ideally":[147],"suited":[148],"investigation":[151],"because":[152],"it":[153],"comprises":[154],"individual-level,":[157],"within-subject":[158],"predictions,":[159],"past":[160],"performance":[161],"indicators,":[162],"ability":[165],"test":[167],"effectiveness":[169],"arbitrary":[171],"player-selection":[172],"strategies.":[173],"find":[175],"smaller,":[177],"smarter":[178],"crowds":[179],"advance":[184],"they":[187],"wisdom":[190],"larger":[193],"crowd.":[194],"also":[196],"show":[197],"many":[199],"would":[201],"by":[204],"simply":[205],"imitating":[206],"strategy":[208],"player":[211],"who":[212],"done":[214],"well":[215],"past.":[218],"Finally,":[219],"we":[220,229],"provide":[221],"theoretical":[223],"model":[224],"explains":[226],"results":[228],"see":[230],"our":[232],"empirical":[233],"analyses.":[234]},"abstract_inverted_index_v3":null,"cited_by_api_url":"https://api.openalex.org/works?filter=cites:W2062055052","counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2025-03-23T05:44:58.811403","created_date":"2016-06-24"}