{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,23]],"date-time":"2024-08-23T00:28:10Z","timestamp":1724372890084},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"16","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]],"date-time":"2024-08-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1724284800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["42201518"]},{"name":"Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by BAST","award":["BYESS2023005"]},{"name":"China Postdoctoral Science Foundation","award":["2023M740159"]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BLX202107"],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Beijing Forestry University National Training Program of Innovation and Entrepreneurship for Undergraduates","award":["202310022097"]},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"Afforestation is an important way to effectively reduce carbon emissions from human activities and increase carbon sinks in forest ecosystems. It also plays an important role in climate change mitigation. Currently, few studies have examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of future afforestation areas, which are crucial for assessing future carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. In order to obtain the dynamic distribution of potential afforestation land over time under future climate change scenarios in China, we utilized the random forest method in this study to calculate weights for the selected influencing factors on potential afforestation land, such as natural vegetation attributes and environmental factors. The \u201cweight hierarchy approach\u201d was used to calculate the afforestation quality index of different regions in different 5-year intervals from 2021 to 2060 and extract high-quality potential afforestation lands in each period. By dynamically analyzing the distribution and quality of potential afforestation land from 2021 to 2060, we can identify optimal afforestation sites for each period and formulate a progressive afforestation plan. This approach allows for a more accurate application of the FCS model to evaluate the dynamic changes in the carbon sequestration capacity of newly afforested land from 2021 to 2060. The results indicate that the average potential afforestation land area will reach 75 Mha from 2021 to 2060. In the northern region, afforestation areas are mainly distributed on both sides of the \u201cHu Line\u201d, while in the southern region, they are primarily distributed in the Yunnan\u2013Guizhou Plateau and some coastal provinces. By 2060, the potential calculated cumulative carbon storage of newly afforested lands was 11.68 Pg C, with a peak carbon sequestration rate during 2056\u20132060 of 0.166 Pg C per year. Incorporating information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation succession, climate production potential, and vegetation resilience while quantifying the weights of each influencing factor can enhance the accuracy of predictions for potential afforestation lands. The conclusions of this study can provide a reference for the formulation of future afforestation plans and the assessment of their carbon sequestration capacity.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16163098","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]],"date-time":"2024-08-22T10:28:51Z","timestamp":1724322531000},"page":"3098","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Estimation of Spatial\u2013Temporal Dynamic Evolution of Potential Afforestation Land and Its Carbon Sequestration Capacity in China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-9562-6797","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhipeng","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Precision Forestry Key Laboratory of Beijing, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Zong","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Precision Forestry Key Laboratory of Beijing, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China"},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"}]},{"given":"Xiaoyuan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Business School, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China"}]},{"given":"Shijie","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"988","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1201609","article-title":"A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World\u2019s Forests","volume":"333","author":"Pan","year":"2011","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2030","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scib.2022.08.025","article-title":"Challenges to Achieve Carbon Neutrality of China by 2060: Status and Perspectives","volume":"67","author":"Chen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. 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