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Updating does retain enough of the structure of Bayes\u2019 rule to let us model it coherently in an optimizing framework, in which, interestingly, asymmetry and conservatism emerge as complementary biases. We also find that exogenous changes in beliefs affect subjects\u2019 decisions to enter into a competition and do so similarly for more and less biased subjects, suggesting that people cannot \u201cundo\u201d their biases when the time comes to decide. <\/jats:p> This paper was accepted by Axel Ockenfels, behavioral economics and decision analysis. <\/jats:p> Funding: Financial support from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Harvard University, and Wesleyan University is gratefully acknowledged. P. 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