乐胖代购免代理版

{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,16]],"date-time":"2024-09-16T01:18:19Z","timestamp":1726449499325},"reference-count":75,"publisher":"Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Decision Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,12]]},"abstract":"We explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts and their combination in decision making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist. We expand on some important challenges influencing the \u201cgoodness\u201d of combined probability forecasts such as miscalibration, dependence among forecasters, and selection of an appropriate evaluation measure while connecting the processes of aggregating and evaluating forecasts to decision making. Through three important applications from the domains of meteorology, economics, and political science, we illustrate state-of-the-art usage of probability forecasts: how they are combined, evaluated, and communicated to stakeholders. We expect to see greater use and aggregation of probability forecasts, especially given developments in statistical modeling, machine learning, and expert forecasting; the popularity of forecasting competitions; and the increased reporting of probabilities in the media. Our vision is that increased exposure to and improved visualizations of probability forecasts will enhance the public\u2019s understanding of probabilities and how they can contribute to better decisions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1287\/deca.2019.0391","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,6]],"date-time":"2019-11-06T14:00:32Z","timestamp":1573048832000},"page":"239-260","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":50,"title":["Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective"],"prefix":"10.1287","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1051-6639","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robert L.","family":"Winkler","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708;"}]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4781-9174","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yael","family":"Grushka-Cockayne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163;"},{"name":"Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903;"}]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1303-8676","authenticated-orcid":false,"suffix":"Jr.","given":"Kenneth C.","family":"Lichtendahl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903;"}]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8078-368X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Victor Richmond R.","family":"Jose","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057"}]}],"member":"109","reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-306-47630-3_19"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0149817"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2015.2374"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1969.103"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbusvent.2013.07.003"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bennett J, Lanning S (2007) The Netflix Prize.Proc. 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