乐胖代购免代理版

{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,6]],"date-time":"2024-09-06T01:01:58Z","timestamp":1725584518332},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,29]],"date-time":"2021-09-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1632873600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,29]],"date-time":"2021-09-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1632873600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002322","name":"Coordena\u00e7\u00e3o de Aperfei\u00e7oamento de Pessoal de N\u00edvel Superior","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002322","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"STIC AmSud"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["EPJ Data Sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"Abstract<\/jats:title>Given the difficulties in predicting human behavior, one may wish to establish bounds on our ability to accurately perform such predictions. In the case of mobility-related behavior, there exists a fundamental technique to estimate the predictability of an individual\u2019s mobility, as expressed in a given dataset. Although useful in several scenarios, this technique focused on human mobility as a monolithic entity, which poses challenges to understanding different types of behavior that may be hard to predict. In this paper, we propose to study predictability in terms of two components of human mobility: routine and novelty, where routine is related to preferential returns, and novelty is related to exploration. Viewing one\u2019s mobility in terms of these two components allows us to identify important patterns about the predictability of one\u2019s mobility.<\/jats:p>Additionally, we argue that mobility behavior in the novelty component is hard to predict if we rely on the history of visited locations (as the predictability technique does), and therefore we here focus on analyzing what affects the predictability of one\u2019s routine. To that end, we propose a technique that allows us to (i) quantify the effect of novelty on predictability, and (ii) gauge how much one\u2019s routine deviates from a reference routine that is completely predictable, therefore estimating the amount of hard-to-predict behavior in one\u2019s routine. Finally, we rely on previously proposed metrics, as well as a newly proposed one, to understand what affects the predictability of a person\u2019s routine. Our experiments show that our metrics are able to capture most of the variability in one\u2019s routine (adjusted

$R^{2}$<\/jats:tex-math>\n \n R<\/mml:mi>\n 2<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:msup>\n <\/mml:math><\/jats:alternatives><\/jats:inline-formula> of up to 84.9% and 96.0% on a GPS and CDR datasets, respectively), and that routine behavior can be largely explained by three types of patterns: (i) stationary patterns, in which a person stays in her current location for a given time period, (ii) regular visits, in which people visit a few preferred locations with occasional visits to other places, and (iii) diversity of trajectories, in which people change the order in which they visit certain locations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-021-00304-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,29]],"date-time":"2021-09-29T12:04:15Z","timestamp":1632917055000},"update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["On estimating the predictability of human mobility: the role of routine"],"prefix":"10.1140","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2804-063X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Douglas do Couto","family":"Teixeira","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jussara M.","family":"Almeida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Aline Carneiro","family":"Viana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"304_CR1","volume":"5","author":"Y Zheng","year":"2014","unstructured":"Zheng Y, Capra L, Wolfson O, Yang H (2014) Urban computing: concepts, methodologies, and applications. ACM Trans Intell Syst Technol 5:38","journal-title":"ACM Trans Intell Syst Technol"},{"key":"304_CR2","volume-title":"Proc. IEEE international conference on data engineering","author":"S Ma","year":"2013","unstructured":"Ma S, Zheng Y, Wolfson O (2013) T-share: a large-scale dynamic taxi ridesharing service. In: Proc. IEEE international conference on data engineering"},{"key":"304_CR3","volume-title":"International workshop on urban computing","author":"S Hasan","year":"2013","unstructured":"Hasan S, Zhan X, Ukkusuri SV (2013) Understanding urban human activity and mobility patterns using large-scale location-based data from online social media. In: International workshop on urban computing"},{"key":"304_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep02923","volume":"3","author":"X Lu","year":"2013","unstructured":"Lu X, Wetter E, Bharti N, Tatem AJ, Bengtsson L (2013) Approaching the limit of predictability in human mobility. Sci Rep 3:2923","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"304_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-017-0129-1","volume":"7","author":"A Cuttone","year":"2018","unstructured":"Cuttone A, Lehmann S, Gonz\u00e1lez MC (2018) Understanding predictability and exploration in human mobility. EPJ Data Sci 7:2","journal-title":"EPJ Data Sci"},{"key":"304_CR6","first-page":"86","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 8th EAI international conference on mobile computing, applications and services. MobiCASE\u201916","author":"G Moon","year":"2016","unstructured":"Moon G, Hamm J (2016) A large-scale study in predictability of daily activities and places. In: Proceedings of the 8th EAI international conference on mobile computing, applications and services. MobiCASE\u201916, pp\u00a086\u201397"},{"issue":"5968","key":"304_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1018","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1177170","volume":"327","author":"C Song","year":"2010","unstructured":"Song C, Qu Z, Blumm N, Barab\u00e1si A-L (2010) Limits of predictability in human mobility. Science 327(5968):1018\u20131021","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"304_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"568","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trc.2009.10.006","volume":"18","author":"JC Herrera","year":"2010","unstructured":"Herrera JC, Work DB, Herring R, Ban X, Jacobson Q, Bayen AM (2010) Evaluation of traffic data obtained via gps-enabled mobile phones: the mobile century field experiment. Transp Res, Part C, Emerg Technol 18(4):568\u2013583","journal-title":"Transp Res, Part C, Emerg Technol"},{"issue":"1","key":"304_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-016-0092-2","volume":"5","author":"MG Beir\u00f3","year":"2016","unstructured":"Beir\u00f3 MG, Panisson A, Tizzoni M, Cattuto C (2016) Predicting human mobility through the assimilation of social media traces into mobility models. EPJ Data Sci 5(1):30","journal-title":"EPJ Data Sci"},{"issue":"10","key":"304_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"818","DOI":"10.1038\/nphys1760","volume":"6","author":"C Song","year":"2010","unstructured":"Song C, Koren T, Wang P, Barab\u00e1si A-L (2010) Modelling the scaling properties of human mobility. Nat Phys 6(10):818\u2013823","journal-title":"Nat Phys"},{"key":"304_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1109\/PerCom.2014.6813948","volume-title":"2014 IEEE international conference on pervasive computing and communications (PerCom)","author":"G Smith","year":"2014","unstructured":"Smith G, Wieser R, Goulding J, Barrack D (2014) A refined limit on the predictability of human mobility. In: 2014 IEEE international conference on pervasive computing and communications (PerCom). IEEE, pp\u00a088\u201394"},{"key":"304_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1145\/3283590.3283592","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 2Nd ACM SIGSPATIAL workshop on prediction of human mobility. PredictGIS 2018","author":"DDC Teixeira","year":"2019","unstructured":"Teixeira DDC, Alvim M, Almeida J (2019) On the predictability of a user\u2019s next check-in using data from different social networks. In: Proceedings of the 2Nd ACM SIGSPATIAL workshop on prediction of human mobility. PredictGIS 2018, pp\u00a08\u201314. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/3283590.3283592"},{"key":"304_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.1145\/3347146.3359093","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGSPATIAL international conference on advances in geographic information systems. SIGSPATIAL \u201919","author":"DDC Teixeira","year":"2019","unstructured":"Teixeira DDC, Viana AC, Alvim MS, Almeida JM (2019) Deciphering predictability limits in human mobility. In: Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGSPATIAL international conference on advances in geographic information systems. SIGSPATIAL \u201919. ACM, New York, pp\u00a052\u201361. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/3347146.3359093"},{"issue":"3","key":"304_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2840722","volume":"48","author":"A Hess","year":"2016","unstructured":"Hess A, Hummel KA, Gansterer WN, Haring G (2016) Data-driven human mobility modeling: a survey and engineering guidance for mobile networking. ACM Comput Surv 48(3):38","journal-title":"ACM Comput Surv"},{"key":"304_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1016\/j.comcom.2016.04.013","volume":"95","author":"LM Silveira","year":"2016","unstructured":"Silveira LM, Almeida JM, Marques-Neto HT, Sarraute C, Ziviani A (2016) Mobhet: predicting human mobility using heterogeneous data sources. Comput Commun 95:54\u201368","journal-title":"Comput Commun"},{"key":"304_CR16","volume-title":"Proc. International conference on knowledge discovery and data mining","author":"E Cho","year":"2011","unstructured":"Cho E, Myers SA, Leskovec J (2011) Friendship and mobility: user movement in location-based social networks. In: Proc. International conference on knowledge discovery and data mining"},{"key":"304_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"462","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04292","volume":"439","author":"D Brockmann","year":"2006","unstructured":"Brockmann D, Hufnagel L, Geisel T (2006) The scaling laws of human travel. Nature 439:462\u2013465","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"7392","key":"304_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"96","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10856","volume":"484","author":"F Simini","year":"2012","unstructured":"Simini F, Gonz\u00e1lez MC, Maritan A, Barab\u00e1si A-L (2012) A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature 484(7392):96\u2013100","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"304_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"779","DOI":"10.1038\/nature06958","volume":"453","author":"MC Gonzalez","year":"2008","unstructured":"Gonzalez MC, Hidalgo CA, Barabasi A-L (2008) Understanding individual human mobility patterns. Nature 453:779\u2013782","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"304_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pmcj.2016.04.005","volume":"33","author":"E Mucceli","year":"2016","unstructured":"Mucceli E, Carneiro Viana A, Sarraute C, Brea J, Alvarez-Hamelin JI (2016) On the regularity of human mobility. Pervasive Mob Comput 33:73\u201390","journal-title":"Pervasive Mob Comput"},{"issue":"1","key":"304_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-017-0107-7","volume":"6","author":"EL Ikanovic","year":"2017","unstructured":"Ikanovic EL, Mollgaard A (2017) An alternative approach to the limits of predictability in human mobility. EPJ Data Sci 6(1):12. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-017-0107-7","journal-title":"EPJ Data Sci"},{"key":"304_CR22","volume-title":"Elements of information theory","author":"TM Cover","year":"2012","unstructured":"Cover TM, Thomas JA (2012) Elements of information theory. Wiley, New York"},{"key":"304_CR23","first-page":"187","volume-title":"Handbook of theoretical computer science (vol. A)","author":"M Li","year":"1990","unstructured":"Li M, Vit\u00e1nyi PMB (1990) Kolmogorov complexity and its applications. In: Handbook of theoretical computer science (vol. A) MIT Press, Cambridge, pp\u00a0187\u2013254. http:\/\/dl.acm.org\/citation.cfm?id=114872.114876"},{"issue":"4","key":"304_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1258","DOI":"10.1109\/18.144706","volume":"38","author":"M Feder","year":"1992","unstructured":"Feder M, Merhav N, Gutman M (1992) Universal prediction of individual sequences. IEEE Trans Inf Theory 38(4):1258\u20131270","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Inf Theory"},{"issue":"1","key":"304_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1109\/TIT.1976.1055501","volume":"22","author":"A Lempel","year":"2006","unstructured":"Lempel A, Ziv J (2006) On the complexity of finite sequences. IEEE Trans Inf Theory 22(1):75\u201381. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1109\/TIT.1976.1055501","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Inf Theory"},{"issue":"3","key":"304_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1319","DOI":"10.1109\/18.669425","volume":"44","author":"I Kontoyiannis","year":"1998","unstructured":"Kontoyiannis I, Algoet PH, Suhov YM, Wyner AJ (1998) Nonparametric entropy estimation for stationary processes and random fields, with applications to English text. IEEE Trans Inf Theory 44(3):1319\u20131327","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Inf Theory"},{"issue":"4","key":"304_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/e21040432","volume":"21","author":"V Kulkarni","year":"2019","unstructured":"Kulkarni V, Mahalunkar A, Garbinato B, Kelleher JD (2019) Examining the limits of predictability of human mobility. Entropy 21(4):432","journal-title":"Entropy"},{"issue":"6","key":"304_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2124","DOI":"10.1109\/18.720534","volume":"44","author":"N Merhav","year":"1998","unstructured":"Merhav N, Feder M (1998) Universal prediction. IEEE Trans Inf Theory 44(6):2124\u20132147","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Inf Theory"},{"key":"304_CR29","volume-title":"Proc. IEEE international conference on big data","author":"K Zhao","year":"2016","unstructured":"Zhao K, Khryashchev D, Freire J, Silva C, Vo H (2016) Predicting taxi demand at high spatial resolution: approaching the limit of predictability. In: Proc. IEEE international conference on big data"},{"issue":"3","key":"304_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1007\/s10707-016-0279-5","volume":"22","author":"M Li","year":"2018","unstructured":"Li M, Westerholt R, Fan H, Zipf A (2018) Assessing spatiotemporal predictability of LBSN: a case study of three Foursquare datasets. GeoInformatica 22(3):541\u2013561. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10707-016-0279-5","journal-title":"GeoInformatica"},{"issue":"2","key":"304_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1038\/s41562-018-0510-5","volume":"3","author":"JP Bagrow","year":"2019","unstructured":"Bagrow JP, Liu X, Mitchell L (2019) Information flow reveals prediction limits in online social activity. Nat Hum Behav 3(2):122\u2013128. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41562-018-0510-5","journal-title":"Nat Hum Behav"},{"issue":"4","key":"304_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/e19040165","volume":"19","author":"T Xu","year":"2017","unstructured":"Xu T, Xu X, Hu Y, Li X (2017) An entropy-based approach for evaluating travel time predictability based on vehicle trajectory data. Entropy 19(4):165. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/e19040165","journal-title":"Entropy"},{"key":"304_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"973","DOI":"10.1109\/ISCIT.2012.6381046","volume-title":"2012 international symposium on communications and information technologies (ISCIT)","author":"X Zhou","year":"2012","unstructured":"Zhou X, Zhao Z, Li R, Zhou Y, Zhang H (2012) The predictability of cellular networks traffic. In: 2012 international symposium on communications and information technologies (ISCIT), pp\u00a0973\u2013978"},{"issue":"7","key":"304_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1109\/MCOM.2015.7158283","volume":"53","author":"G Ding","year":"2015","unstructured":"Ding G, Wang J, Wu Q, Yao Y, Li R, Zhang H, Zou Y (2015) On the limits of predictability in real-world radio spectrum state dynamics: from entropy theory to 5g spectrum sharing. IEEE Commun Mag 53(7):178\u2013183","journal-title":"IEEE Commun Mag"},{"issue":"1","key":"304_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms9166","volume":"6","author":"L Pappalardo","year":"2015","unstructured":"Pappalardo L, Simini F, Rinzivillo S, Pedreschi D, Giannotti F, Barab\u00e1si A-L (2015) Returners and explorers dichotomy in human mobility. Nat Commun 6(1):1\u20138","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"304_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"314","DOI":"10.1145\/3397536.3422248","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 28th international conference on advances in geographic information systems","author":"L Amichi","year":"2020","unstructured":"Amichi L, Viana AC, Crovella M, Loureiro AA (2020) Understanding individuals\u2019 proclivity for novelty seeking. In: Proceedings of the 28th international conference on advances in geographic information systems, pp\u00a0314\u2013324"},{"key":"304_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1109\/MDM.2013.81","volume-title":"2013 IEEE 14th international conference on mobile data management","author":"M Lin","year":"2013","unstructured":"Lin M, Hsu W-J, Lee ZQ (2013) Modeling high predictability and scaling laws of human mobility. In: 2013 IEEE 14th international conference on mobile data management, vol\u00a02. IEEE, pp\u00a0125\u2013130"},{"issue":"4","key":"304_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3459625","volume":"7","author":"DDC Teixeira","year":"2021","unstructured":"Teixeira DDC, Viana AC, Almeida JM, Alvim MS (2021) The impact of stationarity, regularity, and context on the predictability of individual human mobility. ACM Trans Spatial Algorithms Syst 7(4):19. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/3459625","journal-title":"ACM Trans Spatial Algorithms Syst"},{"key":"304_CR39","volume-title":"The master algorithm: how the quest for the ultimate learning machine will remake our world","author":"P Domingos","year":"2018","unstructured":"Domingos P (2018) The master algorithm: how the quest for the ultimate learning machine will remake our world. Basic Books, New York"},{"key":"304_CR40","first-page":"1","volume-title":"IEEE INFOCOM 2016-the 35th annual IEEE international conference on computer communications","author":"J Jeong","year":"2016","unstructured":"Jeong J, Leconte M, Proutiere A (2016) Cluster-aided mobility predictions. In: IEEE INFOCOM 2016-the 35th annual IEEE international conference on computer communications. IEEE, pp\u00a01\u20139"},{"key":"304_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-540-30231-5_8","volume-title":"Geographic information science","author":"R Hariharan","year":"2004","unstructured":"Hariharan R, Toyama K (2004) Project lachesis: parsing and modeling location histories. In: Egenhofer MJ, Freksa C, Miller HJ (eds) Geographic information science. Springer, Berlin, pp\u00a0106\u2013124"},{"issue":"4","key":"304_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1145\/270563.571472","volume":"28","author":"D Gusfield","year":"1997","unstructured":"Gusfield D (1997) Algorithms on stings, trees, and sequences: computer science and computational biology. ACM SIGACT News 28(4):41\u201360","journal-title":"ACM SIGACT News"}],"container-title":["EPJ Data Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-021-00304-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-021-00304-8\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-021-00304-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,29]],"date-time":"2021-09-29T12:04:27Z","timestamp":1632917067000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/epjdatascience.springeropen.com\/articles\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-021-00304-8"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,29]]},"references-count":42,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["304"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-021-00304-8","relation":{},"ISSN":["2193-1127"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2193-1127","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"11 November 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"13 September 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"29 September 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"Data collection was approved by the data owners, and written informed consent has been obtained for all study participants.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"49"}}