{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,9]],"date-time":"2024-08-09T09:47:38Z","timestamp":1723196858984},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]],"date-time":"2020-10-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1603843200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]],"date-time":"2020-10-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1603843200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["EPJ Data Sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,12]]},"abstract":"Abstract<\/jats:title>Many democratic societies have become more politically polarized, with the U.S.\u00a0being the main example. The origins of this phenomenon are still not well-understood and subject to debate. To provide insight into some of the mechanisms underlying political polarization, we develop a mathematical framework and employ Bayesian Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) and information-theoretic concepts to analyze empirical data on political polarization that has been collected by Pew Research Center from 1994 to 2017. Our framework can capture the evolution of polarization in the Democratic- and Republican-leaning segments of the U.S.\u00a0public and allows us to identify its drivers. Our empirical and quantitative evidence suggests that political polarization in the U.S.\u00a0is mainly driven by strong political\/cultural initiatives in the Democratic party.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-020-00249-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]],"date-time":"2020-10-28T00:26:35Z","timestamp":1603844795000},"update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["The great divide: drivers of polarization in the US public"],"prefix":"10.1140","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1700-1897","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lucas","family":"B\u00f6ttcher","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Hans","family":"Gersbach","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"249_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780190923624.001.0001","volume-title":"Network propaganda: manipulation, disinformation, and radicalization in American politics","author":"Y Benkler","year":"2018","unstructured":"Benkler Y, Faris R, Roberts H (2018) Network propaganda: manipulation, disinformation, and radicalization in American politics. Oxford University Press, Oxford"},{"key":"249_CR2","unstructured":"Gentzkow M (2016) Polarization in 2016. Toulouse Network of Information Technology Whitepaper"},{"issue":"40","key":"249_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10612","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1706588114","volume":"114","author":"L Boxell","year":"2017","unstructured":"Boxell L, Gentzkow M, Shapiro JM (2017) Greater Internet use is not associated with faster growth in political polarization among US demographic groups. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114(40):10612\u201310617","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"249_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-polisci-100711-135242","volume":"16","author":"M Prior","year":"2013","unstructured":"Prior M (2013) Media and political polarization. Annu Rev Pol Sci 16:101\u2013127","journal-title":"Annu Rev Pol Sci"},{"key":"249_CR5","volume-title":"Polarized America: the dance of ideology and unequal riches","author":"N McCarty","year":"2016","unstructured":"McCarty N, Poole KT, Rosenthal H (2016) Polarized America: the dance of ideology and unequal riches. MIT Press, Boston"},{"key":"249_CR6","volume-title":"The partisan divide on political values grows even wider","author":"PR Center","year":"2017","unstructured":"Center PR (2017) The partisan divide on political values grows even wider. https:\/\/www.people-press.org\/2017\/10\/05\/the-partisan-divide-on-political-values-grows-even-wider\/"},{"key":"249_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Azzimonti M, Fernandes M (2018) Social media networks, fake news, and polarization. Working Paper 24462, National Bureau of Economic Research (March 2018). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w24462","DOI":"10.3386\/w24462"},{"issue":"1","key":"249_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"563","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.polisci.11.053106.153836","volume":"11","author":"MP Fiorina","year":"2008","unstructured":"Fiorina MP, Abrams SJ (2008) Political polarization in the American public. Annu Rev Pol Sci 11(1):563\u2013588. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1146\/annurev.polisci.11.053106.153836","journal-title":"Annu Rev Pol Sci"},{"key":"249_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.73.066118","volume":"73","author":"C Borghesi","year":"2006","unstructured":"Borghesi C, Galam S (2006) Chaotic, staggered, and polarized dynamics in opinion forming: the contrarian effect. Phys Rev E 73:066118","journal-title":"Phys Rev E"},{"issue":"16","key":"249_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5962","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1116502109","volume":"109","author":"J Ugander","year":"2012","unstructured":"Ugander J, Backstrom L, Marlow C, Kleinberg J (2012) Structural diversity in social contagion. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(16):5962\u20135966","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"249_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep40391","volume":"7","author":"M Del Vicario","year":"2017","unstructured":"Del Vicario M, Scala A, Caldarelli G, Stanley HE, Quattrociocchi W (2017) Modeling confirmation bias and polarization. Sci Rep 7:40391","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"249_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/e19070371","volume":"19","author":"T Krueger","year":"2017","unstructured":"Krueger T, Szwabi\u0144ski J, Weron T (2017) Conformity, anticonformity and polarization of opinions: insights from a mathematical model of opinion dynamics. Entropy 19:371","journal-title":"Entropy"},{"issue":"3","key":"249_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.1080\/0022250X.2018.1448975","volume":"42","author":"Y-L Chuang","year":"2018","unstructured":"Chuang Y-L, Chou T, D\u2019Orsogna MR (2018) Age-structured social interactions enhance radicalization. J Math Soc 42(3):128\u2013151","journal-title":"J Math Soc"},{"issue":"15","key":"249_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5791","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1217220110","volume":"110","author":"P Dandekar","year":"2013","unstructured":"Dandekar P, Goel A, Lee DT (2013) Biased assimilation, homophily, and the dynamics of polarization. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(15):5791\u20135796","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"issue":"12","key":"249_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1751-8121\/aaad6f","volume":"51","author":"L B\u00f6ttcher","year":"2018","unstructured":"B\u00f6ttcher L, Herrmann HJ, Henkel M (2018) Dynamical universality of the contact process. J Phys A 51(12):125003","journal-title":"J Phys A"},{"issue":"3","key":"249_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0193199","volume":"13","author":"L B\u00f6ttcher","year":"2018","unstructured":"B\u00f6ttcher L, Herrmann HJ, Gersbach H (2018) Clout, activists and budget: the road to presidency. PLoS ONE 13(3):0193199","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"249_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevLett.118.088301","volume":"118","author":"L B\u00f6ttcher","year":"2017","unstructured":"B\u00f6ttcher L, Nagler J, Herrmann HJ (2017) Critical behaviors in contagion dynamics. Phys Rev Lett 118:088301","journal-title":"Phys Rev Lett"},{"key":"249_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep41729","volume":"7","author":"L B\u00f6ttcher","year":"2017","unstructured":"B\u00f6ttcher L, Lukovi\u0107 M, Nagler J, Havlin S, Herrmann HJ (2017) Failure and recovery in dynamical networks. Sci Rep 7:41729","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"5","key":"249_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0178062","volume":"12","author":"L B\u00f6ttcher","year":"2017","unstructured":"B\u00f6ttcher L, Woolley-Meza O, Brockmann D (2017) Temporal dynamics of online petitions. PLoS ONE 12(5):0178062","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"249_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2019.122795","volume":"538","author":"M Hoferer","year":"2019","unstructured":"Hoferer M, B\u00f6ttcher L, Herrmann HJ, Gersbach H (2019) The impact of technologies in political campaigns. Physica\u00a0A 538:122795","journal-title":"Physica\u00a0A"},{"issue":"4","key":"249_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18564\/jasss.3521","volume":"20","author":"A Flache","year":"2017","unstructured":"Flache A, M\u00e4s M, Feliciani T, Chattoe-Brown E, Deffuant G, Huet S, Lorenz J (2017) Models of social influence: towards the next frontiers. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 20(4):2","journal-title":"J Artif Soc Soc Simul"},{"key":"249_CR22","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 8th international conference on social media & society","author":"J Hemsley","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hemsley J, Tanupabrungsun S, Semaan B (2017) Call to retweet: negotiated diffusion of strategic political messages. In: Proceedings of the 8th international conference on social media & society, pp\u00a01\u201310"},{"issue":"3","key":"249_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.1017\/S1537592712001624","volume":"10","author":"K Bawn","year":"2012","unstructured":"Bawn K, Cohen M, Karol D, Masket S, Noel H, Zaller J (2012) A theory of political parties: groups, policy demands and nominations in American politics. Perspective Polit 10(3):571\u2013597","journal-title":"Perspective Polit"},{"issue":"1","key":"249_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/19331681.2014.972603","volume":"12","author":"R Southern","year":"2015","unstructured":"Southern R (2015) Is web 2.0 providing a voice for outsiders? A comparison of personal web site and social media use by candidates at the 2010 uk general election. J Inf Technol Polit 12(1):1\u201317","journal-title":"J Inf Technol Polit"},{"key":"249_CR25","volume-title":"What is populism?","author":"J-W M\u00fcller","year":"2017","unstructured":"M\u00fcller J-W (2017) What is populism? Penguin UK, London"},{"issue":"345","key":"249_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"118","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1974.10480137","volume":"69","author":"MH DeGroot","year":"1974","unstructured":"DeGroot MH (1974) Reaching a consensus. J Am Stat Assoc 69(345):118\u2013121","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"issue":"3","key":"249_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1478-3975\/ab6754","volume":"17","author":"S Xu","year":"2020","unstructured":"Xu S, B\u00f6ttcher L, Chou T (2020) Diversity in biology: definitions, quantification and models. Phys Biol 17(3):031001","journal-title":"Phys Biol"},{"key":"249_CR28","volume-title":"Probability, statistics, and queueing theory","author":"AO Allen","year":"2014","unstructured":"Allen AO (2014) Probability, statistics, and queueing theory. Academic Press, San Diego"},{"key":"249_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1142\/S0219525900000078","volume":"3","author":"G Deffuant","year":"2000","unstructured":"Deffuant G, Neau D, Amblard F, Weisbuch G (2000) Mixing beliefs among interacting agents. Adv Complex Syst 3:87\u201398","journal-title":"Adv Complex Syst"},{"key":"249_CR30","volume":"5","author":"R Hegselmann","year":"2002","unstructured":"Hegselmann R, Krause U (2002) Opinion dynamics and bounded confidence models, analysis, and simulation. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 5:3","journal-title":"J Artif Soc Soc Simul"},{"issue":"1\u20133","key":"249_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.1080\/0022250X.2010.532261","volume":"35","author":"A Flache","year":"2011","unstructured":"Flache A, Macy MW (2011) Small worlds and cultural polarization. J Math Sociol 35(1\u20133):146\u2013176","journal-title":"J Math Sociol"},{"issue":"1","key":"249_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jet.2005.02.012","volume":"130","author":"U Horst","year":"2006","unstructured":"Horst U, Scheinkman JA (2006) Equilibria in systems of social interactions. J Econ Theory 130(1):44\u201377","journal-title":"J Econ Theory"},{"issue":"06","key":"249_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1157","DOI":"10.1142\/S0129183100000936","volume":"11","author":"K Sznajd-Weron","year":"2000","unstructured":"Sznajd-Weron K, Sznajd J (2000) Opinion evolution in closed community. Int J Mod Phys C 11(06):1157\u20131165","journal-title":"Int J Mod Phys C"},{"key":"249_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2019.123713","volume":"545","author":"L B\u00f6ttcher","year":"2019","unstructured":"B\u00f6ttcher L, Montealegre P, Goles E, Gersbach H (2019) Competing activists\u2014political polarization. Physica A 545:123713","journal-title":"Physica A"},{"key":"249_CR35","volume-title":"Markov chains","author":"JR Norris","year":"1998","unstructured":"Norris JR (1998) Markov chains, vol\u00a02. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge"},{"key":"249_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"415","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-economics-081919-050239","volume":"12","author":"E Zhuravskaya","year":"2020","unstructured":"Zhuravskaya E, Petrova M, Enikolopov R (2020) Political effects of the Internet and social media. Annu Rev Econ 12:415\u2013438","journal-title":"Annu Rev Econ"},{"key":"249_CR37","unstructured":"Doherty C, Kiley J, Jameson B (2016) Partisanship and political animosity in 2016. Pew Research Center 75"},{"key":"249_CR38","unstructured":"Pew Research Center (2020) Frequently asked questions. https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/methods\/u-s-survey-research\/frequently-asked-questions\/"},{"key":"249_CR39","unstructured":"Pew Research Center (2019) US Survey Research. https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/methods\/u-s-survey-research\/"},{"issue":"2","key":"249_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"252","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2013.10.007","volume":"246","author":"A Pandey","year":"2013","unstructured":"Pandey A, Mubayi A, Medlock J (2013) Comparing vector\u2013host and SIR models for Dengue transmission. Math Biosci 246(2):252\u2013259","journal-title":"Math Biosci"},{"key":"249_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b16018","volume-title":"Bayesian data analysis","author":"A Gelman","year":"2013","unstructured":"Gelman A, Stern HS, Carlin JB, Dunson DB, Vehtari A, Rubin DB (2013) Bayesian data analysis. Chapman and Hall\/CRC, Boca Raton"},{"key":"249_CR42","first-page":"127","volume-title":"Oxford handbook of economics of peace and conflict","author":"J Esteban","year":"2012","unstructured":"Esteban J, Ray D (2012) Comparing polarization measurs. In: Oxford handbook of economics of peace and conflict, pp\u00a0127\u2013151"},{"issue":"4","key":"249_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"819","DOI":"10.2307\/2951734","volume":"62","author":"J-M Esteban","year":"1994","unstructured":"Esteban J-M, Ray D (1994) On the measurement of polarization. Econometrica 62(4):819\u2013851","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"249_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"D\u2019Ambrosio C (2006) Wolff: is wealth becoming more polarized in the United States? International Perspectives on Household Wealth 394","DOI":"10.4337\/9781847203175.00021"},{"issue":"3","key":"249_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.1111\/1097-3923.00042","volume":"2","author":"Y-Q Wang","year":"2000","unstructured":"Wang Y-Q, Tsui K-Y (2000) Polarization orderings and new classes of polarization indices. J Public Econ Theory 2(3):349\u2013363","journal-title":"J Public Econ Theory"}],"container-title":["EPJ Data Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-020-00249-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-020-00249-4\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-020-00249-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,10]],"date-time":"2023-10-10T18:55:41Z","timestamp":1696964141000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/epjdatascience.springeropen.com\/articles\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-020-00249-4"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,12]]}},"alternative-id":["249"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-020-00249-4","relation":{},"ISSN":["2193-1127"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2193-1127","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,28]]},"assertion":[{"value":"10 January 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"28 September 2020","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"28 October 2020","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"32"}}