{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,2]],"date-time":"2024-05-02T14:19:32Z","timestamp":1714659572005},"reference-count":60,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,1]],"date-time":"2021-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622505600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,21]],"date-time":"2021-06-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1624233600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":20,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"Bundesinstitut f\u00fcr Berufsbildung"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["AStA Wirtsch Sozialstat Arch"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,6]]},"abstract":"Zusammenfassung<\/jats:title>Dieser Beitrag stellt das Modellsystem QINFORGE vor. Es ist durch die Ber\u00fccksichtigung beruflicher Mobilit\u00e4tsprozesse in der Lage, Anpassungsreaktionen zwischen Arbeitsangebot und -bedarf auf beruflicher Ebene in der kurzen und langen Frist aufzuzeigen. Das Modell wird genutzt, um die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Krise auf die Besch\u00e4ftigungs- und Entlohnungschancen in Berufen zu verdeutlichen. Hierf\u00fcr werden zwei Szenarien miteinander vergleichen: Ein \u201ekontrafaktisches Szenario\u201c schreibt langfristige Verhaltensweisen und Trends ausgehend vom Jahr 2019 fort. Die \u201eBasisprojektion\u201c versucht hingegen, die Konjunktur in der kurzen Frist auf Branchenebene mit abzubilden. Hierdurch werden modellendogen Verhaltens\u00e4nderungen auf Berufsebene angeregt.<\/jats:p>Die Krise wird die Wirtschaftsleistung Deutschlands langfristig um drei Jahre zur\u00fcckwerfen. Da sich aufgrund der schlechteren Arbeitsmarktlage aber auch einige Erwerbspersonen, insbesondere Frauen, vom Arbeitsmarkt zur\u00fcckziehen werden, steigt die prognostizierte Zahl der Erwerbslosen in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 in der Basisprojektion nur um rund 400.000 Personen im Vergleich zum kontrafaktischen Szenario an. Langfristig stellt das knappe Arbeitsangebot hingegen einen hemmenden Faktor f\u00fcr das Wirtschaftswachstum dar. Zudem wird durch die Krise in der kurzen und mittleren Frist das gesamtwirtschaftliche Lohnwachstum gehemmt.<\/jats:p>Die Ergebnisse des Modells zeigen, dass durch die Krise vor allem Berufe in der Gastronomie, dem Tourismus, sowie in Kunst und Kultur betroffen sind. Ab dem Jahr 2025 wird hier jedoch wieder das Lohn- und Besch\u00e4ftigungsniveau erreicht, das auch im kontrafaktischen Szenario erreicht worden w\u00e4re. Bei den kurzfristigen Lohnsteigerungen in den Gesundheitsberufen handelt es sich hingegen um Vorzieheffekte. Auf lange Sicht ist in der Basisprojektion gegen\u00fcber dem \u201ekontrafaktischen Szenario\u201c kein h\u00f6heres Lohnniveau zu erwarten. Das Arbeitsangebot in den Gesundheitsberufen \u2013\u00a0insbesondere in der Pflege\u00a0\u2013 k\u00f6nnte durch die Krise zwar zunehmen, dies w\u00e4re jedoch darauf zur\u00fcckzuf\u00fchren, dass die Erwerbschancen und Entlohnungsm\u00f6glichkeiten au\u00dferhalb der Pflegeberufe durch die COVID-19-Pandemie vergleichsweise geringer werden k\u00f6nnten.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s11943-021-00284-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,21]],"date-time":"2021-06-21T10:03:41Z","timestamp":1624269821000},"page":"107-138","update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Folgen der COVID-19-Krise auf die kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen Besch\u00e4ftigungs- und Entlohnungschancen nach Berufen"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8948-1909","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tobias","family":"Maier","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Anke","family":"M\u00f6nnig","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Gerd","family":"Zika","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"284_CR1","series-title":"IAB-Bibliothek","volume-title":"Das IAB\/INFORGE-Modell. 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