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Comparative Study
. 2005 May 24;102(21):7612-7.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.0500208102. Epub 2005 May 12.

Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface

Line J Gordon  1 , Will Steffen, Bror F Jönsson, Carl Folke, Malin Falkenmark, Ase Johannessen
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface

Line J Gordon et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

It is well documented that human modification of the hydrological cycle has profoundly affected the flow of liquid water across the Earth's land surface. Alteration of water vapor flows through land-use changes has received comparatively less attention, despite compelling evidence that such alteration can influence the functioning of the Earth System. We show that deforestation is as large a driving force as irrigation in terms of changes in the hydrological cycle. Deforestation has decreased global vapor flows from land by 4% (3,000 km(3)/yr), a decrease that is quantitatively as large as the increased vapor flow caused by irrigation (2,600 km(3)/yr). Although the net change in global vapor flows is close to zero, the spatial distributions of deforestation and irrigation are different, leading to major regional transformations of vapor-flow patterns. We analyze these changes in the light of future land-use-change projections that suggest widespread deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa and intensification of agricultural production in the Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, significant modification of vapor flows in the lands around the Indian Ocean basin will increase the risk for changes in the behavior of the Asian monsoon system. This analysis suggests that the need to increase food production in one region may affect the capability to increase food production in another. At the scale of the Earth as a whole, our results emphasize the need for climate models to take land-use change, in both land cover and irrigation, into account.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Spatial distribution of annual water vapor flows (mm/yr) from potential vegetation, illustrating water vapor flows before human impacts. The figure illustrates the importance of vapor flows from the humid tropics. The total global vapor flow amounts to 67,000 km3/yr.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Spatial distribution of changes in vapor flows due to deforestation (mm/yr), based on the change in vapor flows between potential vegetation and actual vegetation in deforested areas. The total decrease in vapor flows is ≈3,000 km3/yr.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Spatial distribution of changes in vapor flows due to irrigation (mm/yr), defined as the change in vapor flows when irrigation only is added to actual vegetation. The total increase in vapor flows amounts to 2,600 km3/yr.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Spatial distribution of net changes in vapor flows between potential vegetation and actual deforested and irrigated vegetation in mm/yr. The aggregated global change as compared with the potential vegetation is small (400 km3/yr), but the map illustrates the large spatial redistribution of water vapor flows from the land surface at the global scale.
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