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. 1999 Nov 23;96(24):13626-33.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.96.24.13626.

Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: an opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls?

W L Chameides  1 , H Yu, S C Liu, M Bergin, X Zhou, L Mearns, G Wang, C S Kiang, R D Saylor, C Luo, Y Huang, A Steiner, F Giorgi
Affiliations

Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: an opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls?

W L Chameides et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

The effect of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze from air pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat grown in China is assessed. The assessment is based on estimates of aerosol optical depths over China, the effect of these optical depths on the solar irradiance reaching the earth's surface, and the response of rice and winter wheat grown in Nanjing to the change in solar irradiance. Two sets of aerosol optical depths are presented: one based on a coupled, regional climate/air quality model simulation and the other inferred from solar radiation measurements made over a 12-year period at meteorological stations in China. The model-estimated optical depths are significantly smaller than those derived from observations, perhaps because of errors in one or both sets of optical depths or because the data from the meteorological stations has been affected by local pollution. Radiative transfer calculations using the smaller, model-estimated aerosol optical depths indicate that the so-called "direct effect" of regional haze results in an approximately 5-30% reduction in the solar irradiance reaching some of China's most productive agricultural regions. Crop-response model simulations suggest an approximately 1:1 relationship between a percentage increase (decrease) in total surface solar irradiance and a percentage increase (decrease) in the yields of rice and wheat. Collectively, these calculations suggest that regional haze in China is currently depressing optimal yields of approximately 70% of the crops grown in China by at least 5-30%. Reducing the severity of regional haze in China through air pollution control could potentially result in a significant increase in crop yields and help the nation meet its growing food demands in the coming decades.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Frequency distribution of aerosol optical depth at 550 nm observed at the U.S. Department of Energy Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Site in Oklahoma during 1998 (43). (Data courtesy of R. Halthore and A. Cronet.)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Annually averaged values for τa (550 nm) over China: model-estimated values are indicated by color coding; numbers and crosses indicate measurement-based values from Zhou et al. (23) and the locations where the data were collected.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Average model-estimated values for τa (550 nm) over China for the months of January, April, July, and October.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Calculated ΔIstot (in percent), the percent reduction in the total surface irradiance over China for summertime conditions using model-estimated τas. (a) The Cloud-Free, High Absorption Case. (b) The Cloud-Free, Low Absorption case.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Scatterplots of measured yields of rice cultivated in Texas as a function of accumulated surface solar irradiance received during a 40-day critical sunlight-requiring period for rice beginning with panicle differentiation and ending 10 days before maturity. The triangles represent annual data from commercial fields in Orange and Jefferson Counties cultivated with rice from 1964 to 1973. The closed triangle is the datum obtained in 1969, a year with adverse weather conditions; this datum was not included in the calculation of the indicated R2 value. The circles represent annual data obtained from experimental fields in Texas cultivated from 1963 to 1967 with varying planting dates. For the commercial-field data, 100% accumulated solar irradiance is equal to 1.3 × 108 J⋅m−2 (and was observed in 1971) and 100% yield is equal to 4,784 kg⋅ha−1 (and was observed in 1971). For the experimental-field data, 100% accumulated irradiance is equal to 1.6 ×108 J⋅m−2 (and was observed in one of three fields tested in 1964) and 100% yield is equal to 5,988 kg⋅ha−1 (and was observed in one of three fields tested in 1965). Data are taken from Stansel and Huke (15).
Figure 6
Figure 6
Model-calculated percentage change in crop yields as a function of the assumed total surface solar irradiance, with 100% representing the observed irradiance. The calculations were carried out by using conditions appropriate for Nanjing (see Table 3).
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